We’ve got an NL Central rivalry game at Miller Park on Monday night between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have opened up a three-game lead in the division by being able to host Colorado while the Cubs were out trying to beat the LA Dodgers.
The Cubs did throw a combined no-hitter against the Dodgers on Thursday night, but then lost three straight to make the long flight from LAX to MKE with a rather subdued mood to be sure.
I talked about this game on Thursday’s podcast when I did a weekend preview of the Cubs/Dodgers series. While the Cubs were out west, so Sunday “Night” Baseball was more like Sunday Evening Baseball, Chicago still had the latest start time of any game on Sunday and then had the long flight to Milwaukee after the game. The Cubs did have an off day on Wednesday, but it was their first off day since June 10.
The Cubs only scored nine runs over their four games against the Dodgers and that has been an ongoing issue for Chicago. The ‘Last 30 Days’ split at FanGraphs is an easy one to use, but the Cubs have been a poor offense longer than that. Chicago ranks 29th in wOBA at .284 over the last 30 days.
As bad as the full-season numbers are for Milwaukee, they at least rank 15th in wOBA over the last 30 days, so they’ve gotten better. They’ve started hitting for more power and have carried a high walk rate to better offensive success. The Cubs have basically stopped walking and have struck out a ton.
That doesn’t seem like a great development going up against Freddy Peralta. Peralta has a 10.5% BB% on the season, but he’s also running a ridiculous 36.4% K%. He has a 2.11 ERA with a 2.79 FIP. One of the things I’ve been following closely this season is that the Brewers aren’t hitting at home. Well, opponents aren’t hitting at Miller Park either, at least not against Peralta, who has a .188 wOBA against in his 46.1 innings at home this season.
That means that a poor Cubs offense is likely to struggle in this spot and I do think that the situational angle is a pretty strong one here as well.
Things are progressively getting better for Kyle Hendricks, whose ERA is down to 3.84, but he’s still contending with that 5.07 FIP. He’s been extremely fortunate to have an 83.1% LOB%, otherwise his ERA would be much, much higher. He’s given up 19 home runs this season, but has otherwise pitched around hard contact.
Admittedly, the Brewers offense doesn’t match up terribly well in this spot, as they’ve lived on a high walk rate and Hendricks has only walked 17 batters in his 15 starts. They also don’t hit for a ton of power at home, but the Brewers have been the better offense for a while now and Peralta’s baseline looks a lot higher than Hendricks’s baseline, at least for this season.
Another factor, as it always is in Milwaukee games, is that Josh Hader and Devin Williams are both well-rested. Neither guy has pitched since Friday. The Cubs bullpen is one that I’m still looking for some regression from with that 80.8% LOB%. That mark is 2.4% higher than any other team in baseball. That 2.67 ERA that leads the league will regress as we go forward and it could really happen any day.
Between the situational spot, the good bullpen situation for the Brewers, and Peralta over Hendricks, I think there are enough reasons here to lay the Milwaukee price in the -140s.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Other picks/previews for today: Angels at Yankees & Giants at Dodgers