Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated National League matchup, the Cincinnati Reds are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park on May 25, 2024. The Reds will be hoping to turn their season around, as their record stands at a disappointing 21-30, while the Dodgers are enjoying a successful campaign with a record of 33-20.

The Reds will have Hunter Greene on the mound, a talented right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the #62 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Greene has started 10 games this season, boasting a 2-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.22. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could face challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Dodgers will rely on Walker Buehler, another right-handed pitcher who is ranked as the #59 best starting pitcher in MLB. Buehler has started 3 games this year, posting a 1-1 record with an ERA of 4.05. His 3.36 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in upcoming games.

In their last meeting, the Reds emerged victorious with a 9-6 win over the Dodgers. However, the Dodgers were the favorites in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Reds, despite their recent success, are still considered underdogs for this game, with a current moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

The Reds' offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 28th best in MLB. However, they have shown some prowess in team batting average (#14) and stolen bases (#1). The Dodgers, on the other hand, boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, excelling in team home runs (#2).

Both teams have average projections for their respective starting pitchers. Greene is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs, while striking out 6.0 batters. Buehler, meanwhile, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, the bookmakers expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring contest. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Dodgers to have a higher average team total of 6.02 runs compared to the Reds' 4.69 runs.

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on this National League clash between the struggling Reds and the dominant Dodgers. With both teams aiming for victory, fans can expect a thrilling encounter at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

In his previous start, Walker Buehler was in good form and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (41.2) may lead us to conclude that Mookie Betts has had bad variance on his side this year with his 20.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Dodgers ranks them as the #5 group of hitters in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jonathan India has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 11th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games at home (+12.50 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.55 Units / 38% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.96 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.68

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