Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies are set to take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League matchup at Coors Field on May 25, 2024. The Rockies, with a record of 17-33 this season, are having a tough time, while the Phillies boast an impressive record of 37-15, making it a great season for them.

The Rockies will have Dakota Hudson on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hudson is ranked as the #263 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league. In his nine starts this year, Hudson has a win/loss record of 1-7 and an ERA of 5.89, which is considered horrible. However, his 5.14 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Phillies will rely on Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing well this season. Nola is ranked as the #31 best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his ten starts, Nola has a win/loss record of 6-2 and an ERA of 3.05, which is considered great. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a 3.69 SIERA, 3.55 xERA, and 3.92 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

This game is the second in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Rockies came out on top, winning 3-2 as a big underdog with a closing Moneyline price of +180 and an implied win probability of 34%. The Phillies were the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -220 and an implied win probability of 66%.

The Rockies offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, while the Phillies offense ranks as the #3 best. The Rockies have struggled in categories such as team home runs and stolen bases, ranking #24 and #30 respectively. Meanwhile, the Phillies have excelled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking #8 and #10 respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Rockies are a big underdog with a moneyline of +200 and an implied win probability of 32%, while the Phillies are the favorites with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 68%. However, THE BAT X projects the Rockies to have a win probability that is 5% greater than the betting market suggests, indicating potential value in betting on the Rockies as an underdog.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Schwarber has a ton of pop (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Dakota Hudson doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Elias Diaz's speed has declined this season. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.42 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 37 games (+22.30 Units / 50% ROI)
• Jake Cave has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.95 Units / 110% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6.53 vs Colorado Rockies 4.9

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.