New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In an exciting interleague matchup, the San Diego Padres will take on the New York Yankees at Petco Park on May 25, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 27-27, are having an average season, while the Yankees boast an impressive 36-17 record, indicating a great season for them.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who is ranked as the #18 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cease has started 10 games this season, with a win/loss record of 5-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.05. He is expected to pitch 5.4 innings on average, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out an average of 7.0 batters per game.

Opposing Cease will be the Yankees' right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman, who is ranked as the #88 best starting pitcher in MLB. Stroman has started 10 games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.05. However, his 4.11 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may not perform as well going forward. Stroman projects to pitch 5.8 innings on average, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters per game.

The Padres are coming off a tough loss in their last game against the Yankees, where they were shut out by a score of 8-0. However, the Padres have a strong offense, ranking as the 8th best in MLB. Their best hitter this season has been Jurickson Profar, who has played in 54 games and has recorded 32 runs, 32 RBIs, and 7 home runs with a batting average of .328 and an OPS of .922.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have the top-ranked offense in MLB, despite their low team batting average of .229. Their best hitter, Juan Soto, has played in 53 games and has recorded 39 runs, 43 RBIs, and 14 home runs. He also has 4 stolen bases and boasts a batting average of .315 and an impressive OPS of .995.

In terms of bullpens, the Padres rank as the 7th best in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Yankees rank 25th, indicating a potential advantage for the Padres in the later innings.

The betting markets project a close game, with the Padres currently favored with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%. The Yankees have a moneyline of +100 and an implied win probability of 48%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects this as a close game, with the Padres having a 52% win probability compared to the Yankees' 48%.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Yankees have a low implied team total of 3.66 runs. THE BAT X projects the Padres to score 4.19 runs on average in this game, while the Yankees are projected to score 4.25 runs.

With the Padres having a slight edge in their projected win probability and their stronger offense, they have a good chance to come out on top in this matchup. However, with both teams having strong pitchers on the mound, it is expected to be a closely contested game. Baseball fans can look forward to an exciting showdown at Petco Park.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (89.7 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Yankees have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 8.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Luis Campusano's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.75 ft/sec last year to 25.14 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)

New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.28 vs San Diego Padres 4.23

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