Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Twins have been having an above-average season so far, with a record of 27-23. In their last game on May 24, they played against the Rangers and emerged victorious with a score of 3-2. The Twins were considered favorites in that game, with closing Moneyline odds of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%.

The Rangers, on the other hand, are having a below-average season with a record of 24-28. They lost their previous game against the Twins and were considered underdogs with closing Moneyline odds of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.

For this game, the Twins are projected to start Chris Paddack, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average performance this season. He has started 9 games and has a win/loss record of 4-2. Paddack's ERA stands at 4.47, but his 3.75 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Rangers are projected to start Michael Lorenzen, another right-handed pitcher. Lorenzen has started 7 games this season and has a win/loss record of 2-3. His ERA is 3.61, but his 4.48 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward.

In terms of offense, the Twins rank as the 16th best in MLB, while the Rangers rank 14th. The Rangers have a strong batting average and are among the best in home runs, but they struggle in stolen bases. The Twins, on the other hand, have a lower batting average but excel in home runs.

Based on the projections, the Twins are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 56%. The Rangers are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 44%.

The Twins will rely on their best hitter, Ryan Jeffers, who has been performing well this season with 31 RBIs and 10 home runs. The Rangers will look to Marcus Semien, their best hitter, who has recorded 38 runs and 34 RBIs this season.

With Chris Paddack's control issues, the high-walk Rangers offense may struggle to draw as many walks as usual, giving the pitcher an advantage in this matchup. However, Michael Lorenzen's low-strikeout style may work in his favor against the high-strikeout Twins offense.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Twins have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Rangers' average implied team total of 4.05 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen's sinker percentage has increased by 10.5% from last year to this one (11.8% to 22.3%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.2) may lead us to conclude that Evan Carter has had bad variance on his side this year with his 19.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2152 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2218 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Byron Buxton has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.94 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.44 vs Minnesota Twins 4.77

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