Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers
  • Keaton Winn - Giants

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 14, 2024, at Oracle Park. The Giants will be looking to bounce back from their recent loss to the Dodgers in the first game of the series.

The Giants, with a season record of 19-24, are having a challenging season, while the Dodgers boast an impressive record of 28-15, making them one of the top teams in the league. The Giants will have Keaton Winn on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has shown below-average performance according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Dodgers will start Gavin Stone, who has a solid record of 3-1 this season and has been performing well.

The Giants' offense has struggled this season, ranking 23rd in the MLB, while the Dodgers' offense has been dominant, ranking 1st in the league. The Giants will heavily rely on their bullpen, which is considered the best in the MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Dodgers' bullpen, while solid, ranks 15th in the league.

In their last game, the Giants lost to the Dodgers with a score of 6-4. Despite being the underdogs, the Giants put up a good fight, with a closing Moneyline price of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%. The Dodgers, as the favorites, had a closing Moneyline price of -225 and an implied win probability of 66%.

Keaton Winn, despite his struggles this season, has the advantage of being a high-groundball pitcher facing a powerful Dodgers offense known for their home runs. If he can keep the ball on the ground, it may limit the Dodgers' ability to capitalize on their power hitting. Gavin Stone, on the other hand, is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Giants offense that ranks 4th in the MLB in strikeouts. This could work in Stone's favor, as his strength aligns with the Giants' weakness.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Giants as underdogs with a win probability of 44%, while the Dodgers are favored with a win probability of 56%. Based on the current odds, the Giants have an average implied team total of 3.76 runs, while the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.74 runs.

As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the Giants can overcome their struggles and put up a fight against the dominant Dodgers. With both teams having talented pitchers on the mound, the outcome of the game will likely hinge on the performance of the offenses. Baseball fans are in for an exciting matchup between these division rivals.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Max Muncy tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Keaton Winn.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Keaton Winn has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 5.63 mark is a good deal higher than his 4.22 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 88 games (+24.02 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+17.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.12 vs San Francisco Giants 4.16

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