Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Quinn Priester - Pirates
  • Joe Ross - Brewers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 14, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a record of 24-17, are having a great season, while the Pirates, with a record of 19-23, are having a below-average season.

The Brewers will be the home team for this game, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ross, who has started 7 games this year. Ross has a win/loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 4.75, which is average. However, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ross is ranked #151 out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he has been underperforming and is likely to improve going forward.

On the other side, the Pirates will be the away team and will start right-handed pitcher Quinn Priester. Priester has started 4 games this year and has a win/loss record of 0-3. He has an ERA of 3.86, which is considered good. However, his 4.50 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this year and may regress in future performances.

The Brewers offense ranks #27 in MLB in team batting average and #22 in team home runs this season. Despite these rankings, they have shown potential in their offensive capabilities, ranking #10 in team stolen bases. The Pirates offense, on the other hand, ranks #26 in team batting average, #23 in team home runs, and #12 in team stolen bases.

It is worth noting that the Brewers have been on a hot streak, with their best hitter over the last 7 games being Jake Bauers. Bauers has recorded impressive numbers, including 7 hits, 4 runs, 8 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases, with a batting average of .467 and an OPS of 1.579.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Pirates, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Brewers to continue their strong season against a struggling Pirates team. With Joe Ross projected to improve his performance and the Brewers offense showing potential, they have the edge going into this game. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester (51.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Rowdy Tellez has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last season's 23.36 ft/sec to 24.13 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Joe Ross has been unlucky in regards to his ERA this year; his 4.75 figure is inflated compared to his 3.92 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Typically, batters like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Quinn Priester.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 66 games (+14.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+8.20 Units / 137% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.25 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.56

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