Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated matchup on May 14, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park. As an Interleague matchup, both teams are eager to secure a victory and showcase their skills against each other.

The Tigers, with a season record of 21-20, are having an average season. Led by their homegrown talent, including their best hitter Riley Greene, the Tigers aim to continue their recent success. In their last game, the Tigers faced the Marlins and emerged victorious with a score of 6-5. Despite being the favorite in that game, the Tigers had to fight for the win. Looking ahead, the Tigers hope to build on their recent performance and secure another victory against the struggling Marlins.

On the other side, the Marlins have had a tough season, with a record of 11-32. Their offense, ranked 29th in MLB, has struggled to generate runs. However, their best hitter Jazz Chisholm has been a bright spot, and they are determined to turn their season around. In their last game against the Tigers, the Marlins fell short with a close 6-5 loss. Despite being underdogs, the Marlins put up a fight against the Tigers.

Taking the mound for the Tigers is Reese Olson, a right-handed pitcher. Olson has had a strong season so far, with an impressive ERA of 2.52. However, his peripheral indicator xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs. While his strikeout and walk projections are below average, Olson's ability to keep the ball on the ground may work in his favor against a Marlins offense that lacks power.

Opposing Olson will be Ryan Weathers, a left-handed pitcher for the Marlins. Weathers has struggled this season with an ERA of 4.54, and his xERA indicates that he may face difficulties in this game as well. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs. With below-average strikeout and walk projections, Weathers will need to step up his performance to challenge the Tigers' offense.

In terms of team rankings, the Tigers' offense has not fared well this season. They currently rank 25th in MLB, with low batting average and home run numbers. In contrast, the Marlins have shown excellence in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. However, their overall offensive performance remains poor, with low rankings in home runs and stolen bases.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers are the favored team with a projected win probability of 61%. The Marlins, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 39%. Based on the current odds, the Tigers have a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, while the Marlins have a lower implied team total of 3.65 runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Ryan Weathers's 2317-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a big 109-rpm spike from last season's 2208-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Miami Marlins have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Reese Olson is expected to rack up an average of 16.4 outs in today's matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Carson Kelly's speed has dropped off this year. His 25.72 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #24 group of hitters in the majors since the start of last season by this standard.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 away games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.14 vs Detroit Tigers 4.98

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