Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

In an American League East matchup, the Boston Red Sox will take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on May 14, 2024. The Red Sox, with a season record of 21-20, are having an average season, while the Rays, with a record of 21-21, are also having an average season. This game marks the second game in the series between these two teams.

The Red Sox, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their strong offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB in team batting average this season. However, their ranking in team home runs and stolen bases is average. The Rays, on the other hand, have a good ranking in team batting average (9th), and a great ranking in team home runs (4th) and stolen bases (2nd).

On the mound for the Red Sox is right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, who has started three games this year. Pivetta has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.60, which is considered good. However, his peripheral indicators, such as xERA and FIP, suggest that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

Opposing Pivetta is right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale, who has started eight games this year. Civale has a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 5.88, which is considered below average. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

In terms of projections, Pivetta is expected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, striking out 4.6 batters, and allowing 4.2 hits and 1.3 walks on average. Civale, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.9 batters, and allowing 5.7 hits and 1.2 walks on average.

The Red Sox offense has been led by their best hitter, who has yet to be mentioned. Over the last 7 games, Wilyer Abreu has been their standout performer. The Rays, on the other hand, have been relying on the strong performances of Yandy Diaz, who has recorded 10 hits, 8 runs, and 2 home runs over the last week.

Considering the projections and the offensive capabilities of both teams, this game is expected to be high-scoring. The Game Total is currently set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. The Red Sox have a higher implied team total of 4.61 runs compared to the Rays' 4.39 runs, according to the current odds.

In terms of betting markets, the Red Sox are favored with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. The Rays, with a moneyline of +100, have an implied win probability of 48%. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Overall, this matchup between the Red Sox and the Rays promises an exciting game with both teams having average seasons. The Red Sox will rely on their strong offense, while the Rays will look to capitalize on their power-hitting lineup. With two right-handed pitchers on the mound, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has dropped by 9.9% from last year to this one (37.4% to 27.5%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Harold Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Reese McGuire will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games at home (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.98 vs Boston Red Sox 4.75

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