Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • JP Sears - Athletics
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Oakland Athletics on May 14, 2024, in an American League West matchup at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, who currently hold a record of 16-25 this season, are having a difficult time. Meanwhile, the Athletics have a record of 19-24 and are also struggling.

The Astros will have Ronel Blanco on the mound, a right-handed pitcher. Blanco has started seven games this year and has an impressive win/loss record of 4-0. He boasts an excellent ERA of 2.23, indicating his strong performance on the field. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in the future.

The Athletics will counter with JP Sears, a left-handed pitcher. Sears has started eight games this season and holds a win/loss record of 3-2. His ERA stands at 4.20, which is above average. Similarly to Blanco, Sears' 4.71 FIP indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in his performance moving forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Astros rank 14th in team batting average, 9th in team home runs, and 12th in team stolen bases in MLB this season. On the other hand, the Athletics rank 30th in team batting average, 24th in team home runs, and an impressive 5th in team stolen bases.

The Astros' best hitter this season has been Kyle Tucker, while the Athletics' standout performer has been Brent Rooker. Over the past seven games, Tucker has recorded impressive stats, including 6 hits, 5 runs, 6 RBIs, 4 home runs, and 1 stolen base. Rooker, on the other hand, has showcased his skills with 13 hits, 8 runs, 7 RBIs, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen base.

When it comes to pitching projections, Blanco is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.2 batters. However, he is projected to allow 4.2 hits and 1.9 walks, which are considered subpar. Sears, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, and striking out 4.4 batters. His hits and walks projections are also below average.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are considered heavy favorites with a moneyline of -195, indicating an implied win probability of 64%. The Athletics, on the other hand, are the underdogs with a moneyline of +170, suggesting an implied win probability of 36%.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), JP Sears is expected to wring up 4 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

As it relates to his home runs, Abraham Toro has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His 18.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Max Schuemann, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 65.3% of the time, grading out in the 88th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+14.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.74 Units / 44% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 14 games (+22.75 Units / 162% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 4.11 vs Houston Astros 5.36

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.