Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 5/25/2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 25, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 25, 2024
  • Venue: Tropicana Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Brady Singer - Royals
    • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals 100, Rays -120
Runline: Royals 1.5 -200, Rays -1.5 170
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 48% Kansas City Royals - 48.54%
Tampa Bay Rays - 52% Tampa Bay Rays - 51.46%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to take on the Kansas City Royals in an American League matchup on May 25, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays will play as the home team, while the Royals will be the away team.

The Rays have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 25-27. On the other hand, the Royals have been performing exceptionally well with a record of 33-19, making it a great season for them.

The projected starting pitcher for the Rays is Aaron Civale, a right-handed pitcher. Civale has had an average season so far, ranked as the #104 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

This game is the second in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Royals defeated the Rays by a score of 8-1. The Rays had a closing Moneyline price of +100, indicating an implied win probability of 48%. The Royals had a closing Moneyline price of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%.

In terms of offense, the Rays rank 22nd in MLB this season, while the Royals rank 11th. However, the Rays have a strong power hitting team, ranking 4th in MLB for home runs and 2nd in stolen bases. The Royals, on the other hand, have been strong in stolen bases, ranking 4th in the league.

In their last start, Civale pitched 5 innings with 4 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 4 walks. Singer, on the other hand, had a solid performance, going 6 innings with 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 1 walk.

Based on THE BAT X projections, the Rays have a win probability of 52%, while the Royals have a win probability of 48%. The current moneyline odds reflect a close game, with the Rays at -120 and the Royals at +100.

The Rays' best hitter this season has been Isaac Paredes, while the Royals' top performer has been Bobby Witt Jr. In their last 7 games, Paredes has been the Rays' standout hitter, while Michael Massey has been the Royals' best hitter.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Tropicana Field — the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.

  • This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

MJ Melendez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale's cutter utilization has fallen by 8% from last season to this one (37.4% to 29.4%) .

  • Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jose Siri's quickness has declined this year. His 29.78 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.32 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Tampa Bay Rays have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 11.5° figure is among the lowest in MLB since the start of last season (#25 overall).

  • If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.25 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.12

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-111
51% KC
-107
49% TB

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-118
3% UN
7.5/-102
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+154
76% KC
+1.5/-185
24% TB

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
KC
Team Stats
TB
5.20
ERA
3.88
.260
Batting Avg Against
.230
1.41
WHIP
1.20
.304
BABIP
.282
9.1%
BB%
7.7%
20.4%
K%
24.0%
67.1%
LOB%
73.2%
.244
Batting Avg
.256
.394
SLG
.443
.695
OPS
.770
.301
OBP
.327
KC
Team Records
TB
24-13
Home
18-22
15-16
Road
14-13
32-24
vRHP
21-29
7-5
vLHP
11-6
11-18
vs>.500
5-14
28-11
vs<.500
27-21
4-6
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
7-13
17-13
Last30
13-17
B. Singer
A. Civale
135.2
Innings
N/A
24
GS
N/A
8-8
W-L
N/A
4.91
ERA
N/A
7.70
K/9
N/A
2.72
BB/9
N/A
0.86
HR/9
N/A
65.8%
LOB%
N/A
10.1%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.89
FIP
N/A
4.20
xFIP
N/A
.259
AVG
N/A
19.9%
K%
N/A
7.0%
BB%
N/A
4.37
SIERA
N/A

B. Singer

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/28 CLE
Civale N/A
W6-4 N/A
0.2
3
3
3
0
1
6-14
9/20 CLE
McKenzie N/A
W7-2 N/A
7
6
2
2
7
1
62-97
9/11 MIN
Pineda N/A
L2-9 N/A
4.2
7
6
6
7
2
64-97
9/5 CHW
Cease N/A
W6-0 N/A
7
5
0
0
6
0
72-106
8/29 SEA
Gonzales N/A
L3-4 N/A
6
3
2
1
5
3
66-102

A. Civale

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/3 TEX
Dunning N/A
W6-0 N/A
6
3
0
0
4
1
54-82
9/28 KC
Singer N/A
L4-6 N/A
5.1
4
4
4
3
1
56-90
9/23 CHW
Lopez N/A
L2-7 N/A
1.2
7
7
7
3
2
30-45
9/18 NYY
Gil N/A
W11-3 N/A
6
4
0
0
4
1
53-91
9/12 MIL
Lauer N/A
L1-11 N/A
3
6
7
5
3
2
40-64

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
KC TB
KC TB
Consensus
+105
-122
-111
-107
+105
-125
-110
-110
-102
-116
-108
-108
-104
-113
-114
-104
+100
-120
-120
+100
+100
-120
-110
-110
Open
Current
Book
KC TB
KC TB
Consensus
-1.5 (+151)
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-190)
+1.5 (154)
-1.5 (+170)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-194)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-186)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+185)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-116)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-107)
8.0 (-113)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)