Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Both teams have struggled this season, with the Diamondbacks holding a record of 24-27 and the Marlins at 18-34. The Diamondbacks are having a below-average season, while the Marlins are having a terrible season.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery, who is ranked as the #128 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Montgomery has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.98. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who is considered a below-average pitcher. Sanchez has made 12 appearances out of the bullpen this year, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.41. Like Montgomery, his 5.13 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In their last game on May 24, the Diamondbacks faced the Marlins and lost by a score of 3-0. The Diamondbacks were heavy favorites to win the game, with a closing Moneyline price of -180 and an implied win probability of 63%. The Marlins, on the other hand, were big underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%.

The Diamondbacks have a strong offense, ranking as the 9th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 11th, and stolen bases, ranking 3rd. Their best hitter this season has been Ketel Marte, who has recorded 35 runs, 27 RBIs, and 10 home runs with a batting average of .286 and an OPS of .846.

In contrast, the Marlins have struggled offensively, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. However, they have excelled in team batting average, ranking 3rd. Jazz Chisholm has been their best hitter this season, contributing 26 runs, 7 home runs, and 9 stolen bases.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 59%. The Marlins are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 41%. The current odds reflect the Diamondbacks' favoritism, with a moneyline of -180, implying a 62% chance of winning, while the Marlins have a moneyline of +155, suggesting a 38% chance of winning.

Based on the projections, the Diamondbacks are expected to score an average of 5.26 runs in this game, while the Marlins are projected to score 4.65 runs. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation for a high-scoring game.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all starters, Sixto Sanchez's fastball velocity of 94 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Despite posting a .221 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has had bad variance on his side given the .109 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Throwing 93.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Jordan Montgomery places in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Sixto Sanchez has a pitch-to-contact profile (16th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+16.50 Units / 97% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.64 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.05

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