Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers

May 5, 2024

New York Yankees

New York Yankees
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 5, 2024
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
    • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Tigers 105, Yankees -125
Runline: Tigers 1.5 -205, Yankees -1.5 175
Over/Under Total: 7 100

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Detroit Tigers - 47% Detroit Tigers - 42.82%
New York Yankees - 53% New York Yankees - 57.18%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Detroit Tigers in an American League matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a season record of 22-13, are having a great season, while the Tigers, with a record of 18-15, are having an above-average season.

The Yankees will be the home team for this game, and they have been performing well at Yankee Stadium. The Tigers, on the other hand, will be the away team and will look to challenge the Yankees on their home turf.

The Yankees are projected to start Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher who has been ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his record of 1-3 this season, Cortes has been performing well with an ERA of 3.86. His xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Tigers will counter with Tarik Skubal, an elite left-handed pitcher who has been ranked as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Skubal has been outstanding this season with a record of 4-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.72. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may not continue to perform at the same level.

In terms of offense, the Yankees have been performing well, ranking 7th best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, indicating room for improvement in that area. The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, ranking 23rd in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the favorites with a projected win probability of 54%. The Tigers, with an implied win probability of 46%, are expected to put up a fight.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams with different strengths. The Yankees will rely on their strong pitching and above-average offense, while the Tigers will look to their elite starting pitcher and hope to generate some offense against Cortes.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the performances of Nestor Cortes and Tarik Skubal, as their pitching will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. Will the Yankees' offense find success against Skubal's dominant pitching? Or will the Tigers be able to capitalize on Cortes' tendency for high-flyballs?

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Generating 18.3 outs per outing this year on average, Tarik Skubal places in the 93rd percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nestor Cortes.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Parker Meadows, Jake Rogers, Riley Greene).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Nestor Cortes will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Anthony Rizzo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees batters jointly rank among the best in the majors since the start of last season (3rd-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 61 away games (+15.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.35 vs New York Yankees 3.63

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+111
12% DET
-133
88% NYY

Total Pick Consensus

6.5/-115
18% UN
6.5/-105
82% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-205
36% DET
-1.5/+170
64% NYY

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
DET
Team Stats
NYY
4.46
ERA
4.06
.244
Batting Avg Against
.231
1.27
WHIP
1.25
.289
BABIP
.276
7.6%
BB%
8.8%
22.2%
K%
23.5%
68.5%
LOB%
73.2%
.234
Batting Avg
.232
.374
SLG
.402
.673
OPS
.709
.299
OBP
.307
DET
Team Records
NYY
14-15
Home
18-8
13-13
Road
20-11
20-22
vRHP
31-13
7-6
vLHP
7-6
9-13
vs>.500
12-8
18-15
vs<.500
26-11
4-6
Last10
6-4
9-11
Last20
14-6
13-17
Last30
21-9
T. Skubal
N. Cortes
32.1
Innings
63.1
7
GS
12
2-2
W-L
5-2
4.18
ERA
4.97
10.02
K/9
9.52
1.67
BB/9
2.84
0.28
HR/9
1.56
57.4%
LOB%
69.1%
4.2%
HR/FB%
11.0%
2.09
FIP
4.50
2.91
xFIP
4.83
.252
AVG
.243
27.7%
K%
25.2%
4.6%
BB%
7.5%
3.14
SIERA
4.33

T. Skubal

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/28 MIN
Ober N/A
L1-7 N/A
5
6
6
3
4
2
56-85
4/23 COL
Senzatela N/A
W13-0 N/A
6
5
0
0
6
0
60-91
4/15 KC
Keller N/A
W2-1 N/A
5.2
4
1
0
7
0
65-90
4/10 CHW
Kopech N/A
L1-10 N/A
4
7
5
4
3
1
50-79
9/30 MIN
Ryan N/A
W10-7 N/A
3.1
6
5
5
1
1
34-54

N. Cortes

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 TOR
Kikuchi N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
4
2
2
3
4
51-83
4/29 KC
Bubic N/A
W12-2 N/A
5
8
2
1
3
0
56-82
4/17 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
L0-5 N/A
5
3
0
0
12
1
62-88
4/12 TOR
Kikuchi N/A
W4-0 N/A
4.1
3
0
0
5
0
46-72

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
DET NYY
DET NYY
+108
-126
+111
-133
+114
-135
+114
-135
+108
-126
+112
-132
+105
-122
+110
-129
+105
-125
+115
-135
+105
-125
+115
-140
+105
-125
+115
-135
Open
Current
Book
DET NYY
DET NYY
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+173)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-240)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-240)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
6.5 (-106)
6.5 (-116)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
6.5 (-105)
6.5 (-115)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
6.5 (-105)
6.5 (-115)
7.0 (-113)
7.0 (-107)
6.5 (-106)
6.5 (-114)
7.5 (+105)
7.5 (-125)
6.5 (+100)
6.5 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
6.5 (-105)
6.5 (-115)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
6.5 (-105)
6.5 (-115)