Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Daniel Lynch - Royals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Texas Rangers at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a record of 20-14, are having a great season and will be looking to continue their success as the home team. The Rangers, with a record of 18-16, are having an above-average season and will aim to secure a victory as the away team.

The Royals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Daniel Lynch, who is ranked as the #297 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. While Lynch's ranking suggests that he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB, he has the potential to put up a strong performance. On the other hand, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who is considered an average pitcher.

Gray has started 6 games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-1. His ERA stands at an excellent 2.48, indicating his ability to limit runs. However, his 3.45 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could see a decline in performance going forward.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Royals rank as the #16 best team in MLB, while the Rangers rank as the #12 best team. The Royals have a solid team batting average, ranking #19 in MLB, but they struggle in the home run department, ranking #26. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #4. The Rangers boast an impressive team batting average, ranking #2 in MLB, and are also strong in home runs, ranking #5. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking #25.

The Royals' best hitter this season has been Michael Massey, while the Rangers' best hitter has been Josh H. Smith. Massey has been on fire over the last 7 games, recording 9 hits, 4 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .429 and an impressive OPS of 1.264. Smith, on the other hand, has recorded 5 hits, 5 runs, and 1 home run over the last week, with a batting average of .294 and an OPS of 1.102.

In terms of the pitching matchup, Gray, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a Royals offense that has struggled in the power department. With only 115 home runs this season, ranking #5 least in MLB, the Royals may find it difficult to turn Gray's flyballs into home runs.

The Game Total for today's game is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The current moneyline favors the Rangers at -130, suggesting a 54% win probability, while the Royals sit at +110 with a 46% win probability. Betting markets anticipate a close game.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray has utilized his slider 7.3% more often this season (47.1%) than he did last year (39.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, there has been a decline in Jonah Heim's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.77 ft/sec last year to 24.79 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Daniel Lynch has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play since the start of last season with a .247 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Vinnie Pasquantino has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .240 figure is a good deal lower than his .297 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+11.87 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 79 of their last 145 games (+15.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.24 vs Kansas City Royals 4.43

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