Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Griffin Canning - Angels
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on May 5, 2024, at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will look to continue their impressive season record of 21-12, while the struggling Angels hope to turn their season around with a record of 12-21.

On the mound for the Guardians will be right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who is projected to start against the Angels' right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning. Carrasco, despite his lower ranking in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, has the advantage of facing an Angels offense that ranks sixth in MLB for strikeouts, which plays to his strengths as a low-strikeout pitcher. On the other hand, Canning will face a Guardians offense that ranks first in strikeouts least in MLB, potentially giving the home team an advantage.

Both pitchers have had a challenging season thus far, with Carrasco sporting a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.59. However, his 4.95 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Canning, with a record of 1-3 and an ERA of 7.45, also shows signs of improvement with a 5.25 xFIP. The Guardians offense, ranking 14th in MLB in team batting average, will try to capitalize on Canning's high-flyball tendencies, while the Angels offense, ranking third in team home runs, seeks to challenge Carrasco's pitching.

In terms of team rankings, the Guardians have an average offense, ranking 14th in MLB, while the Angels' offense also falls in the middle of the pack, ranking 13th. However, the Angels have a significant advantage in the power department, ranking third in team home runs. The Guardians, on the other hand, possess a strong bullpen, ranking fourth in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Angels' bullpen struggles, ranking 29th.

The betting odds for the game indicate a close matchup, with the Guardians favored at -130 and the Angels at +110. The Guardians have a higher implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Angels trail slightly with an implied team total of 4.29 runs. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating the potential for a high-scoring game.

Keep an eye on the Guardians' best hitter, who will look to make an impact in this matchup. The Angels' best hitter, Luis Rengifo, has been performing well over the last seven games, hitting for a .500 batting average with a 1.439 OPS. Meanwhile, the Guardians' best hitter in recent games, Steven Kwan, has been a consistent presence at the plate, recording a .400 batting average with a 1.188 OPS over the last week.

Overall, this game presents an intriguing matchup between the Guardians and the struggling Angels. With Carrasco's strengths aligning with the Angels' weaknesses and the Guardians' offense looking to capitalize on Canning's tendencies, the home team may have the edge in this contest. However, with both teams possessing notable offensive weapons, a high-scoring game could be in the cards.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Griffin Canning has gone to his slider 7% less often this season (22.7%) than he did last year (29.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Luis Rengifo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco's fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (90 mph) below where it was last year (92 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Josh Naylor's footspeed has declined this year. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.57 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+13.19 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.7 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.9

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