Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

May 5, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates
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Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 5, 2024
  • Venue: PNC Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
    • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rockies 130, Pirates -150
Runline: Rockies 1.5 -165, Pirates -1.5 140
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Colorado Rockies - 42% Colorado Rockies - 41.81%
Pittsburgh Pirates - 58% Pittsburgh Pirates - 58.19%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

In a National League matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Colorado Rockies on May 5, 2024, at PNC Park. The Pirates, with a record of 15-19, are having a challenging season, while the Rockies, with a record of 8-25, are struggling tremendously.

The Pirates are projected to start left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has started six games this year. Falter holds a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.22, which is above average. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Falter ranks as the #204 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the worst in the league.

On the other side, the Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner. Feltner, also with six starts this season, has a win-loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.13, which is considered bad. However, his 3.82 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Pirates offense ranks as the #26 best in MLB, while the Rockies offense ranks #20. Both teams have struggled in various offensive categories, such as team batting average and home runs. However, the Pirates have shown some strength in stolen bases, ranking #12 in MLB, while the Rockies rank last in that category.

In terms of the bullpen, the Pirates have the #7 best bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rockies bullpen ranks #15. This ranking indicates that the Pirates have an advantage in terms of relief pitching.

Looking at the projected starting pitchers, the Pirates might benefit from Falter's low-strikeout approach against the Rockies, who have the third-most strikeouts in MLB. However, the Rockies' low-walk offense, ranking #5 in the league, could potentially take advantage of Falter's tendency to throw strikes.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a win probability of 58%. The Rockies, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130, giving them a 42% implied win probability. The Pirates have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Rockies' 3.65 runs.

With the Pirates playing at home and having the statistical advantage in terms of starting pitching and bullpen, they have the edge going into this game. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on the field. Fans from both teams can expect an exciting matchup as they cheer on their respective teams.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Colorado's 87.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the worst in the majors: #28 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 13.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

  • Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Jack Suwinski is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Oneil Cruz has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 36 away games (+10.46 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Elias Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.69 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.14

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