Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to face off against the Boston Red Sox on May 5, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, with a record of 19-13, are having a great season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 18-16, are performing above average. Joe Ryan, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Twins, while Cooper Criswell, also a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Red Sox.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Joe Ryan is ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him an elite pitcher. In contrast, Cooper Criswell is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Joe Ryan has started six games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.38, which is considered great. His xFIP of 2.81 suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward. On the other hand, Cooper Criswell has started four games, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.65. However, his xFIP of 3.97 indicates that he has been fortunate and may not perform as well in the future.

The Twins' offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 22nd, indicating room for improvement. They excel in team home runs, ranking 7th, but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 24th. The Red Sox, on the other hand, boast the 8th best offense in MLB, with a team batting average ranking of 3rd. Their team home runs rank 18th, while their stolen bases rank 16th.

Looking at the betting odds, the Twins are the favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The Red Sox are the underdogs with a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%. The Twins have a higher implied team total of 4.49 runs compared to the Red Sox's 3.51 runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 23.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

David Hamilton's 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) ranks in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has gone to his secondary offerings 9.1% more often this year (52.2%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Max Kepler's quickness has fallen off this season. His 27.37 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.67 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.55 Units / 24% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.69 vs Minnesota Twins 4.9

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