Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the Detroit Tigers on May 6, 2024, at Progressive Field. As the home team, the Guardians will look to continue their strong season, boasting a record of 22-12. On the other hand, the Tigers have had an above-average season with a record of 18-16.

Triston McKenzie is projected to start for the Guardians, while Jack Flaherty is expected to take the mound for the Tigers. McKenzie, a right-handed pitcher, has had an average season so far, with a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.34. However, his xFIP suggests that he may not perform as well going forward. Flaherty, also a right-handed pitcher, has been performing well with an ERA of 4.00, but his xFIP indicates that he may improve in the future.

This game marks the first in the series between the Guardians and Tigers, and both teams will be looking to start strong. The Guardians are coming off a victory against the Angels with a score of 4-1, while the Tigers suffered a loss against the Yankees with a score of 5-2. In their last game, the Guardians were favored with a closing Moneyline price of -150, while the Tigers were considered underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +110.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 14th in MLB, with an average team batting average and stolen base ranking. However, they struggle with home runs, ranking last in the league. On the other hand, the Tigers rank 25th in MLB, with a below-average team batting average and home run ranking. Both teams have struggled with stolen bases, with the Tigers ranking 28th.

Taking a look at the projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Guardians with a projected win probability of 59%. The current betting market, however, suggests a closer game, with the Guardians having an implied win probability of 52%. This may present an opportunity for value betting on the Guardians.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has recorded 18 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 89th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Cleveland (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Detroit Tigers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Triston McKenzie has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.8% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Estevan Florial has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 55 away games (+14.67 Units / 24% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+10.10 Units / 72% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.9 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.45

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