Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Los Angeles Angels in an Interleague matchup on May 6, 2024, at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team, while the Angels will be the away team.

Mitch Keller is projected to start for the Pirates. Keller is a right-handed pitcher and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 5.18 this year. Despite his struggles, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him one of the better starting pitchers in MLB.

Tyler Anderson is projected to start for the Angels. Anderson is a left-handed pitcher and has been having an excellent season with a record of 2-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.23. However, according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, his performance may not be sustainable in the long run.

This game marks the first matchup between the Pirates and Angels this season. In their last games, the Pirates defeated the Rockies 5-3, while the Angels lost to the Guardians 4-1.

The Pirates offense ranks as the 26th best in MLB this season, indicating that they have struggled to produce runs. On the other hand, the Angels offense ranks as the 15th best, showing a more average performance.

The Pirates' best hitter this season has been Bryan Reynolds, while the Angels' best hitter has been Taylor Ward. Both players have shown consistent performance throughout the season.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are the favorites to win this game with a projected win probability of 57%. The Angels, on the other hand, are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 43%.

With a high implied team total of 4.42 runs, the Pirates are expected to have a strong offensive performance. The Angels, on the other hand, have a lower implied team total of 3.58 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed batters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (93.5 mph) below where it was last year (94.6 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Oneil Cruz's footspeed has declined this season. His 28.66 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.06 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Edward Olivares pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 121 games (+13.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 70% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.29 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.68

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