Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Alex Wood - Athletics

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In an American League West matchup, the Oakland Athletics will face off against the Texas Rangers at Oakland Coliseum on May 6, 2024. The Athletics are the home team, while the Rangers will be playing as the away team.

Coming into this game, the Athletics have a record of 17-18, indicating an average season so far. On the other hand, the Rangers have a record of 19-16, suggesting an above-average season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Athletics is left-hander Alex Wood, while the Rangers are expected to start left-hander Andrew Heaney. Wood, ranked as the #267 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.32 this season. However, his 5.09 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Heaney, although considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards, had a strong performance in his last start, pitching 7 innings with 1 earned run, 4 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 0 walks.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. In their last games, the Athletics lost to the Marlins with a score of 12-3, while the Rangers defeated the Royals with a score of 3-2.

Analyzing the offenses, the Athletics rank as the #23 best in MLB this season, with a particularly low team batting average ranking of #30. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #5 in the league. The Rangers, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking #11 in MLB. They have shown strength in team batting average, ranking #2, and home runs, ranking #5. However, their team stolen bases ranking is low at #25.

Based on THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers are projected as favorites for this game with a win probability of 58%. The Athletics, on the other hand, have a win probability of 42%. The current odds also favor the Rangers, with a moneyline of -140, indicating an implied win probability of 56%. The Athletics are underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Considering the pitching matchup, Wood's struggles with control, and the patient approach of the Rangers' offense, it is possible that the Rangers could draw a lot of walks in this game, giving them an advantage.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, both teams are projected to score below average. THE BAT X projects the Athletics to score 3.62 runs on average, while the Rangers are projected to score 4.54 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Andrew Heaney will record an average of 5.7 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Evan Carter has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Evan Carter pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Alex Wood has been unlucky this year, notching a 6.32 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.86 — a 1.46 disparity.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

This year, there has been a decline in J.D. Davis's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.73 ft/sec last year to 25.07 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Oakland Athletics have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, J.D. Davis, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 86 games (+8.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 78 of their last 147 games (+15.73 Units / 8% ROI)
• J.D. Davis has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.54 vs Oakland Athletics 3.62

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