San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On May 6, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will be the home team in this National League matchup. Both teams have had contrasting seasons so far, with the Cubs boasting a record of 21-14 and the Padres standing at 18-19. The Cubs are having a great season, while the Padres are having an average one.

The Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Justin Steele, who has been impressive this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Steele is ranked as the #18 best starting pitcher in MLB. His ERA of 1.93 is excellent, although his xFIP suggests that he may regress slightly going forward. Steele has started one game this year and is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs.

On the other side, the Padres will send out right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish. While Darvish has a solid ERA of 3.45, his xFIP indicates that he may not have been as fortunate as his results suggest. Darvish has started six games this season and is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cubs have been performing well this season, ranking as the 13th best team in MLB. They have a good team batting average, ranking 9th in the league, and have displayed power with their 12th rank in team home runs. Additionally, the Cubs have been successful on the basepaths, ranking 6th in stolen bases.

The Padres' offense has also been strong, ranking as the 7th best team in MLB. However, they have struggled with team batting average, ranking 20th in the league. They have made up for it with their power, ranking 10th in team home runs, and have been successful in stealing bases, ranking 7th in the league.

In terms of bullpens, the Cubs rank 22nd in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Padres rank 8th. This suggests that the Padres have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the betting odds, the Cubs are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -120, giving them an implied win probability of 52%. The Padres stand at +100 with an implied win probability of 48%. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs indicates that it could be a close game with limited scoring opportunities for both teams.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Yu Darvish's sinker rate has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (18.7% to 12.7%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Jose Azocar usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Steele.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all SPs, Justin Steele's fastball velocity of 91.2 mph grades out in the 18th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 108 games (+8.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.92 vs Chicago Cubs 3.76

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.