Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to face off against the Seattle Mariners on May 6, 2024, at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will look to continue their successful season with a record of 19-14, while the Mariners aim to build on their good season with a record of 19-15.

Starting on the mound for the Twins is Simeon Woods Richard, a right-handed pitcher. He has started three games this year, boasting a 1-0 record with an excellent ERA of 2.45. However, his 4.16 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate this season and may not continue to perform at the same level going forward.

Opposing Woods Richard is Luis Castillo of the Mariners, also a right-handed pitcher. Castillo has started seven games in the current season, with a 3-4 record and a great ERA of 3.46. His 2.93 SIERA and 2.92 FIP indicate that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better in upcoming games.

The Twins offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, showcasing average talent overall. However, their team batting average ranks 22nd, indicating room for improvement in that area. On the other hand, they have excelled in home runs, ranking 7th in the league. Their stolen bases rank 24th, showing a need for improvement in that aspect of their game.

The Mariners offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 23rd best in MLB this season, pointing to below-average talent overall. Their team batting average ranks 24th, demonstrating a weakness in their hitting performance. However, they have performed decently in home runs, ranking 13th in the league. Their stolen bases rank 18th, indicating an average performance in that area.

In terms of bullpens, the Twins have the 10th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Mariners' bullpen ranks 20th, suggesting a weaker performance.

Looking at the statistics, it is worth noting that Castillo's high-strikeout ability (28.7 K%) aligns well with the Twins' weakness as they rank first in the league in strikeouts. This matchup could give Castillo an advantage on the mound.

The projected total runs for this game is 7.5, indicating a low-scoring affair. The Twins have a moneyline of +115, giving them a 45% implied win probability, while the Mariners have a moneyline of -135, with a 55% implied win probability. The odds suggest that this will be a close game.

As the Twins continue their successful season, they will rely on their strong offense and bullpen to secure a victory at home. In contrast, the Mariners will look to capitalize on Castillo's impressive performance on the mound and their average offensive performance to come out on top. With both teams aiming for the win, this game promises an exciting matchup between two competitive American League teams.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's 94.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1-mph decline from last year's 95.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Mitch Haniger's speed has declined this season. His 26.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.69 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

When it comes to his batting average, Ryan Jeffers has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .280 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+13.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 away games (+11.89 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.40 Units / 24% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.54 vs Minnesota Twins 3.95

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