Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 2, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

On May 2, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will look to improve their struggling record of 10-20 this season, while the Guardians aim to continue their successful run with a record of 20-10.

The starting pitchers for this American League matchup are projected to be Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros and Logan Allen for the Guardians. Arrighetti, a right-handed pitcher, has had a tough season with an ERA of 10.97. However, his 4.17 xFIP suggests that he may have been unlucky and could bounce back in this game. Allen, a left-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 5.46 but his 4.39 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

Arrighetti has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 0-3. He projects to pitch an average of 4.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 3.6 batters per game. However, he is projected to allow 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks on average, which is concerning. On the other hand, Allen has started six games with a record of 3-1. He is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters per game. However, he projects to allow 5.6 hits and 2.0 walks on average, which is also a cause for concern.

Offensively, the Astros have been performing well this season, ranking as the 5th best team in MLB. They rank 14th in team batting average and 9th in home runs. On the other hand, the Guardians rank 13th in MLB in offensive performance, ranking 14th in team batting average and last in team home runs. However, they have the 7th best team stolen bases ranking, which could pose a threat to the Astros.

Considering the projections, the Astros have a higher implied team total of 5.02 runs compared to the Guardians' 4.48 runs. However, the Astros' current moneyline odds of -135 suggest a 55% win probability, while the Guardians' odds of +115 indicate a 45% win probability.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Logan Allen is expected to record an average of 3.7 strikeouts in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Cleveland Guardians hitters collectively rank 30th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 5.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Spencer Arrighetti in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 104 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 123 games (+8.15 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+14.80 Units / 123% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.93 vs Houston Astros 5.22

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