New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 2, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees
  • Kyle Bradish - Orioles

Betting Odds

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

The Baltimore Orioles are set to face off against the New York Yankees in an American League East matchup on May 2nd, 2024. The game will take place at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the Orioles serving as the home team.

Both teams are having great seasons so far, with the Orioles holding a record of 19-11 and the Yankees boasting a record of 20-12. This game marks the fourth meeting between the two teams in the series.

The Orioles are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Bradish, who is considered the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bradish is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs. However, his projection also suggests that he will give up a high number of hits and walks.

On the other side, the Yankees are projected to start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who is ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB. Rodon has started six games this season, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.48. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

When it comes to offense, the Orioles rank as the 4th best team in MLB this season, while the Yankees rank 7th. However, the Yankees have struggled with batting average, ranking 29th in the league. Both teams have average rankings in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles have a win probability of 53%, while the Yankees have a win probability of 47%. These projections suggest that the game will be closely contested.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles have an implied team total of 4.24 runs, while the Yankees have a higher implied team total of 4.76 runs. THE BAT X predicts that the Orioles will score an average of 4.72 runs, while the Yankees are projected to score 4.73 runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all starters, Carlos Rodon's fastball spin rate of 2401 rpm is in the 79th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Alex Verdugo's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.26 ft/sec last year to 26.65 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Kyle Bradish has recorded 16.9 outs per start since the start of last season, placing in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

New York's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 80 of their last 134 games (+23.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 away games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 4.8 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.44

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