San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 2, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Josh Winckowski - Red Sox

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated matchup at Fenway Park, the Boston Red Sox will take on the San Francisco Giants on May 2, 2024. The Red Sox, who boast a home record, will have the advantage of playing on their turf, while the Giants will be the visiting team. This interleague game adds an extra layer of excitement, as fans will get to see teams from different leagues face off.

The Red Sox have been having a great season so far, with a record of 18-13. They are currently ranked as the 8th best offense in MLB, with an impressive team batting average that ranks 3rd in the league. Their power hitting has been solid, ranking 18th in home runs, and they have an average ranking in stolen bases. The Red Sox bullpen is considered average, ranking 17th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the pitching side, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Josh Winckowski. He has had a decent season, with a 1-1 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.50. However, his xERA suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could see a decline in performance going forward. Winckowski is expected to pitch around 4.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, striking out 3.2 batters, but also giving up 4.5 hits and 1.5 walks on average.

The Giants, on the other hand, have had a below-average season with a record of 14-17. Their offense ranks 20th in MLB, with a lower team batting average and ranking 21st in the league. They have an average ranking in home runs but a very low ranking in stolen bases. However, their bullpen has been a strong point, ranking as the 2nd best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison is projected to start for the Giants. While he has a decent ERA of 4.09, his SIERA suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Harrison is expected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 5.3 batters, but also giving up 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are favored to win with a higher projected win probability of 51%. However, the Giants are not far behind, with an implied win probability of 49%, indicating that this could be a close game.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and it will be interesting to see how they match up in this interleague showdown. Will the Red Sox's strong offense overpower the Giants' solid bullpen? Or will the Giants' pitching staff step up to contain the Red Sox's potent lineup? Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of this exciting game at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Kyle Harrison encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Boston (#3-worst of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

In his last outing, Josh Winckowski performed well and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Rafael Devers's 12.9% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 87th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Boston Red Sox have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Short, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, Garrett Cooper, Bobby Dalbec).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games at home (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 79 of their last 127 games (+25.97 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.80 Units / 30% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.08 vs Boston Red Sox 4.69

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