Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 2, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Adrian Houser - Mets

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

The New York Mets will be hosting the Chicago Cubs in an exciting National League matchup scheduled for May 2, 2024, at Citi Field. The Mets, with a current record of 15-15, are having an average season, while the Cubs boast a great season with a record of 19-12.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Adrian Houser, who has had a challenging season so far. Houser has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 8.37, which is considered horrible. However, his 6.03 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Cubs will have right-handed pitcher Ben Brown on the mound. Brown has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.30, which is average. His 3.61 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and has the potential to improve in future performances.

The Mets offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, displaying average talent overall. However, their team batting average ranks 24th in the league, which is considered poor. In contrast, the Cubs offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB, also showcasing average talent. The Cubs have a strong team batting average, ranking 9th in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Mets have the 14th best bullpen in MLB, while the Cubs rank 22nd, which is considered below average.

Taking into account the projected starting pitchers, offensive rankings, and bullpen strength, the Cubs have an advantage in this game. Adrian Houser, the Mets' starting pitcher, has struggled with control, and the Cubs have the opportunity to draw walks against him. Additionally, the Cubs' offense has displayed patience at the plate, ranking third in most walks in MLB.

The current odds for the game indicate a close matchup, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. The Mets have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Cubs have the same average implied team total.

It will be interesting to see how the Mets and Cubs perform in this game. The Mets look to improve their season record, while the Cubs aim to continue their strong campaign. Stay tuned for an exciting National League showdown at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's high usage percentage of his fastball (63.9% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Tauchman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Starling Marte has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 11.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably lower than his 20.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

New York Mets bats as a unit rank among the elite in MLB since the start of last season (5th-) when assessing their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 126 games (+13.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has only hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 13 games at home (-0.05 Units / -0% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.11 vs New York Mets 4.34

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