A quick note before we dive into today’s pick. The Brewers -200 against the Cubs was very much in play, but it seems quite probable we lose this game to rain. Even if we don’t, rain delaying the game early is very much in play and that would take the starters out, which makes it a no play. On to today’s betting pick.
Cincinnati Reds -180 at Cleveland Indians
The Reds travel to Cleveland for the battle of Ohio and will be pitching Luis Castillo (6-10, 4.09) in the opening game on Monday. It will be Sam Hentges (1-4, 7.86) on the mound for the Tribe at home, after he was recalled from Triple A last week. With the obvious disparity in pitching, the Reds are a moderate -180 favorite, per DraftKings. Here are the odds from ATS.
Luis Castillo’s overall numbers are misleading, at has essentially been a tale of two seasons within the season for him. He was something of a train wreck in April and May, but has been exceptional ever since. In 11 starts in April and May, he went more than five and a third inning just once. He allowed three or more earned runs in eight of those starts, had a 7.22 ERA and most importantly, the Reds were just 1-10 in those games. His 12 starts since have been a complete turnaround. Using that five and a third innings pitched marker, Castillo has hit at least that length in every single start. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start and has allowed just zero or one earned run in eight of the twelve starts. His ERA in the span is a tiny 1.91 and the Reds are 8-4 in those games. Castillo is absolutely rolling and the anemic bats of the Indians are highly unlikely to change that.
On the other side, Sam Hentges does not have the look of a pitcher that will carve out a long term role n the majors. He is best suited for the bullpen, but the Indians are in need of starts from him. His 7.86 ERA speaks for itself, and is indicative of what to expect. When asked to go more than an inning or two in relief, Hentges has been touched up. In any appearance, nine in total, in which Hentges went more than two innings pitched, he’s allowed at least two earned runs in all but two and has allowed at least four earned in runs in four of them. There is a reasonable chance Hentges gets rocked early and this game is never in question.
While there is nothing noticeable for the Indians overall splits, the Reds do have a nugget that jumps out. The Reds are one of three teams in the league that have a better road record than home record.
With a very lopsided difference in the pitching expectation, the Reds are quite a value at -180, and are a great play for today.