The 2021 Home Run Derby is now at Coors Field and it was shared on social media that the humidor will not be used for the power competition. That means we are going to see a lot of monster home runs in the thin air of Denver, Colorado.
Before we get into the eight players that are participating, let’s take a look at the rules and the format for this year’s dinger display.
Home Run Derby Rules
-Hitters get three (3) minutes in Round 1 & Round 2; two (2) minutes in the Championship Round
-It is not based on outs or swings; hitters will attempt to hit home runs until the time expires
-Batters get one time out
-30 seconds of bonus time is given automatically; an additional 30 seconds is given for at least one home run over 475 feet
-The most home runs wins the round; ties will be broken with a 60-second “swing-off”
There are a few important rules here. The first is the extra bonus time for a 475-foot home run. At Coors Field, it would be surprising if any of the eight players fails to do this. That will be important for the Total Homers prop. It would be surprising if each hitter fell short of four total minutes of hitting in Round 1 or Round 2.
Last year, it was hitting two home runs of 440+. Most hitters got extra bonus time.
Another is that it is based on time and not outs or swings. Keep in mind that this event is in Denver and is extremely tiring. Hitters may pace themselves a little more than usual, but may also take more swings thinking volume is the way to go because you can kind of mishit a ball here and it might still go out.
Overall Home Run Derby Odds
(odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)
Shohei Ohtani +260
Joey Gallo +420
Pete Alonso +450
Matt Olson +500
Trevor Story +750
Juan Soto +800
Salvador Perez +1500
Trey Mancini +1800
Trevor Story’s line did move down while in the process of writing this. The elevation is undoubtedly going to be a factor. Story trains in it and plays in it. This is a very tiring process. These guys take a lot of swings and really look to generate a lot of power with a torqued approach, and that will take a toll.
Some of these guys are known more for their power than others to be sure. I’d worry a little bit about a guy like Joey Gallo, who has a really long swing. He has prolific power, but a long swing.
Nerves are also a thing in this tournament. Typically guys that have done it before should have something of an edge. Pete Alonso is the only repeat contestant. He should also have the best idea of how to pace himself.
Stats To Know
While this is just batting practice, I think there are a few things to consider here:
FB%
Fly ball percentage is important. You’d like a guy in this event that doesn’t have to make any sort of big swing change to get under the baseball and generate lift.
Here’s how the contestants rank:
Joey Gallo – 47.2% (10th in MLB among qualified hitters)
Pete Alonso – 46.2% (13th)
Matt Olson – 44.9% (21st)
Shohei Ohtani – 43% (27th)
Trevor Story – 42.9% (28th)
Salvador Perez – 36.1% (70th)
Trey Mancini – 33.6% (87th)
Juan Soto – 25.2% (130th out of 136)
Launch Angle
Again, you want guys that have the right type of swing to elevate the baseball with power. With no humidor and no resistance on the ball, guys that get it in the air will most certainly have a chance at hitting it out.
The lone downside is the amount of time that it takes to land. To protect fans and fielders, MLB watches closely to ensure that the ball has landed by the next pitch.
Gallo – 21.3 degrees (6th)
Ohtani – 17.8 (19th)
Story – 17.4 (22nd)
Olson – 17.2 (26th)
Alonso – 16.3 (31st)
Perez – 14.8 (42nd)
Mancini – 9.9 (99th)
Soto – 5.0 (127th)
Pull%
Hitting it to the pull side makes the most sense. We’ve seen whole-field power in the Home Run Derby before and power is power no matter what, but it is harder to hit the ball out to the opposite field or the deepest part of the park.
Guys that consistently pull the ball should have the best chance at success.
Ohtani 43.1% (45th)
Perez 42.5% (50th)
Gallo 42.3% (52nd)
Story 40.6% (65th)
Olson 40.1% (70th)
Alonso 40.0% (71st)
Mancini 36.1% (103rd)
Soto 30.2% (129th)
2021 Home Run Derby Pick
My pick to win this event is Matt Olson at +500. I think he has the easiest first-round matchup against Trey Mancini, who is a phenomenal story and a guy that I will root for in tonight’s festivities, but he doesn’t have the same power-hitting profile as the others. That should put him into the second round and then it becomes a little more of a crapshoot from there.
First-Round Matchups
(odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)
#1 Shohei Ohtani (-225) vs. #8 Juan Soto (+184)
#4 Salvador Perez (+172) vs. #5 Pete Alonso (-210)
#2 Joey Gallo (-180) vs. #7 Trevor Story (+152)
#3 Matt Olson (-188) vs. #6 Trey Mancini (+156)
In two of the four matchups, we have a left-handed hitter against a right-handed hitter. Historically, the Coors Field park factor is a little more favorable on home runs for righties, though it is possible that those numbers are a little skewed from guys like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, both right-handed hitters. The two righties are sizable underdogs in their respective matchups, with Story a big pup to Joey Gallo and Trey Mancini a dog to Matt Olson.
The biggest reason for the Olson pick is that I like his first-round matchup the best.
I think the underdogs are live in the other first-round matchups, though Ohtani seems to have the second-best one.
Salvador Perez could very well beat Pete Alonso. I don’t think he does, but he could. He pulls the ball a ton and also makes a lot of line drive contact. Line drives can be good in this event as well.
Trevor Story is very live against Joey Gallo. Gallo has long, prodigious power, but I do think Story fares better with the altitude and Coors Field does have that slight lean to right-handed pop. I think the +152 line is worthy of a bet, even if Gallo has had a phenomenal power stroke of late.
Longest HR Hit – Over/Under 519.5
(odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)
We’re going over this number I think. Without the use of the humidor, we’re going to get a few mammoth home runs. If the humidor was in play, I’d be less certain about it.
The longest home run hit last year in Cleveland was 488 feet by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The longest HR in a Home Run Derby in the Statcast era is 513 feet. The in-game Coors Field record is 505 feet. As hitters sacrifice a little bit of exit velo for more launch, I do think that a non-humidor baseball can get to 520 feet. I’m not sure it goes too far over this, so while the juice is still -110, I like the over.
If it gets bet up a few feet, or the vig gets higher, then I’d get more concerned.
Total Home Runs Hit – Over/Under 224.5
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Clearly Coors Field is an altogether different animal than the other parks we’ve seen. The format changed from outs to a time limit in 2015, though the amount of time in each round has changed. The swing-off was changed from three swings to one minute in 2019 and that is the format that will be used this year.
I’m not sure any past performances in the Derby carry weight here because of the nature of Coors Field and the varied rules and time limits.
The rules are basically on par with 2019 at Progressive Field when 312 home runs were hit. I think this line is too low. We did have three different swing-offs between Vladito and Joc Pederson in that Cleveland derby, but even if we remove that entire round with 79 home runs, we still go over the total with 233. As far as I’m concerned, this line is way too low and the -120 vig is too low as well.
Even accounting for fatigue, with likely the full four minutes for each hitter in the first round, we should put a huge dent into the number with the first eight batters.
How to Watch
The Home Run Derby starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. ESPN2 will carry a Statcast broadcast of the tournament.