Can the Cincinnati Bearcats remain undefeated? That will be the question as they welcome the East Carolina Pirates on Friday night in this American Athletic Conference battle. East Carolina is coming off their third straight loss, falling to Tulane, 38-21. Cincinnati recorded their sixth straight dominating performance, defeating Houston, 38-10.
Cincinnati has won the last two contests between these two teams, and five of the last six. That includes beating the Pirates 46-43 last year. The Bearcats are favored by 27.5.
Tulane Rolls over East Carolina
Tulane rushed for 277 yards, rolling over East Carolina, 38-21. The Green Wave dominated the time of possession by nearly 2 minutes as the Pirates defense had no answer on how to stop Tulane, allowing 7.2 yards per play.
It was a tough day for the East Carolina ground game, which rushed for just 35 total yards. Rahjai Harris led the way with 27 yards on 13 carries. Quarterback Holton Ahlers had a big day, completing 27 of 43 passes for 351 yards and three touchdowns, but it was not nearly enough. Ahlers has been outstanding this season, completing 63.2% of his passes for 1360 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Blake Proehl made 13 catches for 182 yards and two TDs.
The defense struggled against the Green Wave. They allowed 216 yards through the air and nearly 500 total yards in the contest. The defense is allowing 37.2 points and 459 yards per game this season. They have generated 11 turnovers (6 fumbles, 5 interceptions), but have just 11 sacks.
Cincinnati Remains Undefeated
The Bearcats rushed for 342 yards on their way to a decisive 38-10 victory over Houston on Saturday. The two-headed monster of Gerrid Doaks and Desmond Ridder combined for 304 yards and four touchdowns on just 28 carries in the victory.
The pair have been absolutely unstoppable this season, combining for over a thousand yards through the first six games. Doaks has 538 yards and seven touchdowns on 96 carries while Ridder has rushed for 438 yards and eight scores off 45 carries.
While the offense has been solid, there is no denying that it is the Cincinnati defense that has been leading the way. They have allowed a total of 70 points, including limiting opponents to 10 points or less in four of their six contests. The group has intercepted nine passes and recovered three fumbles.
Trends:
East Carolina:
- 15-38 ATS in their last 53 games against teams with a winning record.
- 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on Friday.
- 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games in November.
Cincinnati:
- 5-1 ATS in their last six American Athletic Conference games.
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Friday.
The Winner Prediction
Cincinnati enters this contest as a decisive 27.5-point favorite. That is a lot of points. I like to shy away from contests like this because rarely does it seem that a team is able to cover that many points in a contest. However, the Bearcats have one each of their last three contests by at least 28 points, meaning they know how to blow out an opponent.
The defense has done an outstanding job of shutting down opposing offenses and I do not see them having a challenge in this contest. I also like the fact that Cincinnati has an outstanding ground game and ECU is terrible at stopping the run.
Pick: Cincinnati covers the spread (-27.5) (-110).
The Total:
The total is set at 56.5 and I think Cincinnati will get fairly close to that number on their own. They opened with 55 points against Austin Peay and have averaged 43 points per game over their last three contests.
East Carolina may not be an offensive juggernaut but they can move the ball. They have scored at least 21 points in every one of their games this year. They will not reach that many but will provide some points. Cincinnati wins, 51-20
Pick: Go over 56.5 (-110)