NBA Futures
We have made it through the NBA All Star Break. The All Star Break is not a midseason marker in the NBA. Instead the All Star Break comes when the season is closer to three quarters completed. With that being the case, it is a great time to look at the futures market. We have all the information from the trade deadline just passing and an as large as we can hope for sample size for each team. We will look at values presented in terms of NBA Futures and best betting plays available for the home stretch of the NBA season.
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To Win NBA Championship
There are just a handful of true values for a team to win the NBA Championship. In a normal title odds scenario, the value does not present itself in the smallest odds to win the title, but that is precisely the case right now. You can find the current odds for each team here.
The Phoenix Suns have the smallest price to win the title at +450. I understand why this would not have the feel of a value play, but let’s consider just how well the Suns have played this season. The Suns 48-10 record is best in the league, and it is certainly flying under the radar just how large of a margin they have created. The next best Warriors trail the Suns by a whopping 6.5 games. There is only one other team in either conference within 10 games of the Suns.
Now, the championship odds may be affected by the Chris Paul thumb injury. He will miss approximately the remainder of the regular season, but will be back for the playoffs. Will there be a fall off without Paul in the regular season? Perhaps, and perhaps that is probable. While that is the case, Paul will be back when it matters most in the playoffs. Considering the cushion already created in the standings, it is safe to assume he will return to a top seeded team with home court advantage throughout the playoffs. Considering we would only get +190 for the Suns to win the West, adding in winning a Finals series win to nearly triple the return is absolutely the best value.
Conference Winner
You can find odds for the Eastern Conference winner here and Western Conference winner here.
With the Suns being the only thing resembling a dominant team this season, it is more difficult to pull other values to win the NBA Championship. There are however some longer shots in the Eastern Conference. With the trade deadline bringing a huge shake up for both the Nets and 76ers, oddsmakers have set those teams at or near the top in terms of odds of a Championship for Eastern Conference teams. This is despite the 76ers currently sitting third in the East and the Nets sitting in eighth.
East Values
I believe there are better values to attack in the East, and those are on the teams currently sitting atop the East. The Bulls and Heat are tied for the Conference lead, but do not bring a price tag indicative of that standing. In terms of NBA Championship odds, the Miami Heat bring a +1100 figure while the Chicago Bulls bring +3000. In terms of a conference win, both are cut in half. the Heat would return +550 while the Bulls would return +1500.
Both the Heat and Bulls are teams that have not had great luck in terms of player availability thus far this season. Despite that, they have outperformed their Eastern Conference peers to date. Neither team has had a devastating loss of a key player for the season, and both have hopes of being at full strength in the playoffs.
The Heat are the lesser of the two values, but are the more seasoned playoff team. They have recent NBA Finals experience and have also had the welcome return of Bam Adebayo. If I were making odds to win the East today, the Heat would be the smallest price on my board.
Best Value
The larger value comes on the Bulls. While they are certainly not an accomplished team, they have built a strong roster and have not been at full strength. They have dealt with multiple injuries in the backcourt, but have every opportunity to be at full strength for the postseason. Zach Lavine and Coby White are currently healthy. Lonzo Ball will return in less than a month. What’s more, the emergence of Ayo Dosunmo has created formidable depth in the backcourt. Of course this is in addition to front court stars Nikola Vucevic and Demar DeRozan. The +1500 price tag on the Bulls in the East is strong value.
MVP Award
Next up for NBA Futures is the league MVP. MVP Odds are currently favoring Joel Embiid to win, and I have difficulty with that. The arrival of James Harden will create a brand new dynamic for the 76ers. We know Harden is an exceptional player overall. That said, he is one of the more ball dominant players in the league, and it is difficult to envision Embiid keeping the same statistical pace. Even if the team improves and ultimately makes a run, Harden will likely be at least an equal driving force to Embiid. For that reason, I think we should look elsewhere for MVP wagers.
Nikola Jokic is currently second in betting price at +300. He is the one star on a team missing any other players resembling stars. Jokic is completely the driving force for the Nuggets, and will have the best statistical argument at season’s end. With some small rounding, he is currently averaging 26 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists per game. I believe keeping that trend will ultimately give him the best argument for the award, and set him up to win it for the second consecutive season.
Rookie Of The Year
Moving on in NBA Futures we come to rookie of the year. The rookie of the year race does not seem to be a tight one. Evan Mobley sits atop the field at a rightful -400. He has been a key contributor for a suddenly fun and exciting Cavs team. The next closest players all come at +800 or more. While Mobley is clearly the most likely to win, -400 is far too much to lay. Instead, let’s look at an option with a big return that could have a massive stretch run.
The Thunder’s Josh Giddey currently sits fourth in odds, at +1000. Since the injury to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey has taken the reigns of the Thunder. He is a do it all stat sheet stuffer, and his ability to steal the award from Mobley may come down to the availability of Gilgeous-Alexander. Giddey posted a triple double in each of the Thunder’s final three games entering the break, posting numbers that would be more indicative of MVP than rookie of the year. If throwing a dart at rookie of the year, Giddey is your man.
Most Improved Player
Note that we are not looking at Defensive Player Of the Year or Sixth Man of the Year. Rudy Gobert is quite likely to win defensive player of the year. His +150 price tag is not a terrible one, but it is also not at the level of value we like to see when betting against an entire field. Tyler Herro’s -1200 line for sixth man of the year makes that race unplayable.
Moving on to Most Improved Player. Odds for this race have Ja Morant as a considerable favorite, but probably at a higher level than they should be. Morant currently sits at -430 to win the award. While he is deserving, this is not an award that should be considered a runaway. There are other strong candidates to consider, coming at prices with extremely friendly returns.
The two names that jump out with friendly odds are Darius Garland at +1200 and Dejounte Murray at +1600. While Garland has truly been a driving force behind the Cavaliers success, he likely does not have the statistical backing to actually win the award. That will bring us to Murray, who certainly does not have that problem.
Superstar In The Making
Dejounte Murray is truly an emerging super star in the league. The Spurs know it, and made moves at the trade deadline to invest in a future with Murray as their cornerstone. With Murray at +1600 for the award, we do not need hi to have concrete arguments at the moment when compared to Ja Morant. That said, the team success that Morant is enjoying may be the best argument he has for the award over Murray.
When looking at these two players statistically, the only true edge Morant holds is in the scoring department. Morant’s 26 points per game is significantly more than Murray’s 20 points on a nightly basis. Part of the reason for this is shot volume. Morant takes nearly three more shots per game than Murray. That is where the advantages for Morant end. Murray holds edges or is even in every other statistical category.
Murray is second in the league in triple doubles with 11 this season. He is trailing only the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Murray’s averages of over eight rebounds and nine assists per game are close to putting him in the grouping with the league’s elites. He may already be there. There are only two other players in the league averaging at least nineteen points, eight rebounds and nine assists per game. Those players are Luka Doncic and James Harden. When compared to Morant’s five rebounds and seven assists per game, it becomes more clear that Murray is doing more for his team. It should also be noted that Morant has seen his assist figure drop from the previous year.
Murray also is the league leader in a major category. His 2.0 steals per game is the best in the league.
Again, Morant’s team having more success may well be the determining factor for the award. That said, the statistical case for Murray is a winning one and he is absolutely worth the dart throw at +1600.