The Match IV has a tremendous setting at the The Reserve at Midnight Basin on July 6. The stage has also been set by the social media activity that has already taken place well in advance of the event.
The ongoing beef between Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka had taken center stage, especially with the viral video that made the rounds regarding Koepka’s disgust of his 2018 Ryder Cup teammate, but that was quickly replaced when Tom Brady’s social media team trolled Aaron Rodgers in the aftermath of that video.
It would be great if this was Brooks Koepka and Tom Brady vs. Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers, but we’ll simply have to “settle” for the PGA Championship winner, Phil Mickelson, as Brady’s playing partner. This is going to be a great event and what makes it even greater is that the proceeds go to charity, so it should be a fun day on July 6 in Big Sky Country.
The Match IV Betting Odds – Mickelson/Brady vs. DeChambeau/Rodgers
Early odds from DraftKings Sportsbook show the team of Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers as a -167 favorite over the team of Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady at +130. It’s not like Brady or Mickelson have ever won anything as an underdog, so we don’t even have to watch this all play out.
You know, unless you ignore that Mickelson won the PGA Championship with odds upwards of 250/1 and consider that Brady and his Buccaneers were an underdog against Rodgers and the Packers in the NFC Championship Game and also an underdog to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
Minor details. That’s all.
Before we give out a pick for the action, and surely the odds will change as the professional players go through the PGA Tour season, let’s talk about the format and the course.
Format for The Match IV
The format is the same as what we have seen for this series of events in the past. The four golfers are playing a modified alternate shot format. It will be really interesting to see how all of that plays out because this course in Montana is at 7,500 feet of elevation, so everybody is going to get some extra length off of the tee.
We saw Tom Brady play in the last Match with Phil Mickelson against Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning. He was something of a weakness to the team, though TB12 had his moments, as he always does.
Aaron Rodgers is actually a pretty good golfer. He is good friends with Max Homa and the two finished in the top 10 of the 2020 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Rodgers is also set to play in the American Century Championship, an event filled with celebrities and athletes. It would be nice if he had the chance to play in that prior to The Match IV, but he doesn’t have much going on right now.
In fact, instead of attending the optional OTAs with the Packers, Rodgers was on vacation in Hawaii with his new bride Shailene Woodley and her friends Mr. and Mrs. Miles Teller. Surely he can work some rounds of golf in. So can Brady.
Phil and Bryson? Well, they’ll be busy with the PGA Tour schedule, including the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines from June 17-20.
The Reserve at Midnight Basin
This is a Jack Nicklaus design, which may or may not help in the handicapping process for this event. There are a lot of Nicklaus designs out there, but not many that measure 8,000 yards or have that much elevation. Water won’t be a huge factor. There are few bunkers. A lot of this course is about length and also about whether or not shots get buried in the high grass or fall down hillsides with some of the elevated holes.
There is a 777-yard par 5 on this course. It’s fair to say that DeChambeau is dreaming about how to reach the green in two. This a course that will measure upwards of 8,000 yards, but the elevation is going to make several holes play a lot shorter. Each player will get some extra distance off the tee and on each subsequent shot. Club selection will be pretty important all around.
Certainly DeChambeau has the chance at playing a lot longer than Mickelson, though Lefty held his own driving on the tough course at the PGA Championship, especially in the final pairing with Koepka at Kiawah Island.
Distance could really rule the day. There won’t be a ton of really bad second shots unless a tee shot goes way off-course. Another one of the par 5s measures over 630 yards, so that will be another very intriguing hole. The par 3s could be pretty tricky, especially with the club selection element. The pros will take different clubs than the quarterbacks and we’ll have to wait and see if the teams wind up with some very tough up-and-downs for pars.
The Match IV Pick
A lot can change between the publish date and the actual match. There are some important PGA Tour events and a major that could really alter the odds, depending on how Mickelson and DeChambeau play in the lead-up. One thing we do know for sure is that Rodgers should be a better option than Brady here. We also know that DeChambeau’s length is a weapon.
As a result, the DeChambeau/Rodgers team at -167 looks like the side.