The struggling San Diego Toreros head to McKale Center in Tucson, Arizona, on Monday night to take on the Arizona Wildcats, as the 2020-21 college basketball season continues with more non-conference action.
The Toreros and Wildcats met each other only once, and Arizona beat San Diego 80-69 as double-digit favorites back in 2004. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Wildcats are once more listed as massive favorites to beat the Toreros, so let’s take a closer look.
San Diego started the season on the wrong foot
The San Diego Toreros are sitting bottom of the West Coast Conference with a 1-3 record. Their solitary win came against Cal Poly on the road, 70-61, while the Toreros were beaten by UCLA 83-56, Nevada 79-72, and UC Irvine 85-53.
San Diego is No. 190 in the KenPom rankings. The Toreros score only 97.1 points per 100 possessions (229th in the country) and surrender 99.9 in a return (160th). They make just 38.1% of their field goals (306th) while shooting 35.5% from beyond the arc (118th).
Junior Joey Calcaterra leads the way for San Diego with 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. The Toreros mostly use ten players in their rotation, but besides Calcaterra, nobody’s averaging points in double figures.
Arizona wants to pile on San Diego’s misery
The Arizona Wildcats are coming off a 78-75 defeat at the Stanford Cardinals this past Saturday, failing to cover as 2-point road underdogs. It was their first loss of the young season, so the Wildcats dropped to a 5-1 overall record, but they are 0-1 in the Pac-12 play.
Arizona is No. 43 in the KenPom Rankings, tallying 108.0 points per 100 possessions (49th in the country) and allowing 91.5 in a return (35th). The Wildcats shoot 46.3% from the field (107th) and 39.3% from beyond the 3-point line (35th).
Junior guard Jemarl Baker is the Wildcats leading scorer this season. He’s posting 16.7 points per game on 52.2% shooting from the field, and Baker is making 47.6% of his 3-pointers while taking 7.0 attempts from deep per contest. Three more players are averaging points in double figures including James Akinjo (12.7 PPG, 4.7 APG).
Trends:
San Diego:
- 1-7 ATS in the last eight games overall
- 1-4 ATS in the last five road tilts
Arizona:
- 6-3 ATS in the last nine outings as favorites of 16 or more points
The Winner Prediction
The Toreros have won just two of their last 11 games on the road, covering only four times in the process. They are playing in a poor form at the moment, and with all the defensive issues in their game, the Toreros won’t stand a chance against the Wildcats.
Covering a double-digit spread is never an easy task, but I will lean on the Wildcats’ prolific offense and take the hosts to win and cover.
Pick: Take Arizona -16.0 at -110
The Total:
Seven of San Diego’s last eight games went in the over, as well as three of Arizona’s last four contests. So far, the Toreros have struggled mightily on the defensive end, while the Wildcats have played very well offensively, so I’m betting on the over here.
Both teams play at a steady pace with over 70 possessions per 40 minutes. The Toreros could struggle to cope with the Wildcats’ D, but I expect the hosts to build up a big lead which can cause some complacency down the stretch.
Pick: Go over 138.5 points at -110