Week 15 of the NFL season concludes on Monday Night with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. Oddsmakers think little of the Rams at this point, as the Packers are set as 7.5 point favorites with a small total of 39.5.
ℹ️ The Pick: | Aaron Jones Under 60.5 Rushing Yards |
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Why Bet The Jones Under
✅ For a stretch this season, Aaron Jones was the clear and obvious best skill position player on the offense. Backfield mate AJ Dillon was not playing well nor seeing strong usage. Highly talented rookie wide receiver Christian Watson was battling both injuries and coaching decisions on his usage as well. That has all changed in recent weeks, and the Packers now have some capability in the offensive formation beyond Jones.
Christian Watson has been the most productive player. His eight touchdowns over four games tell the story on his level of effectiveness. It was Dillon, not Jones that lead the backfield in carries in last week’s favorable game script. While Jones is the better receiver, the size of Dillon makes sense for the protecting of leads. The point spread points to a similar scenario in this game.
✅ The Rams are stout against the run. Even with their difficulties on the offensive side of the ball, they are not a team that will roll over against opposing ground games. Jones is also not a player we can project for volume on the ground. He has seen 12 or fewer carries in six of the Packers last eight games. That lack of volume translated to Jones not eclipsing 43 rushing yards in any of those six games. We will likely see more of the same on shortage of carries, regardless of game script.
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Los Angeles Rams
The 4-9 Rams season is over. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will not play again this season. They are letting Baker Mayfield showcase himself down the stretch. The defense is still quite capable and we can expect to see another low scoring game from this team.
Green Bay Packers
The 5-8 Packers are still clinging to playoff hope. They cannot win the division, but they could sneak their way into a Wild Card slot with a string of wins down the stretch. Christian Watson’s presence gives them a treat in the passing game that they were previously missing. Look for the Packers to continue to be all in until mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.