The Australian Open final many had hoped for after Novak Djokovic was removed from the draw has finally arrived. Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev will take part in the 2022 Australian Open men’s final, to see whether Nadal will claim a 21st major title or Medvedev will win his second in a row. In our final set of tennis picks from Melbourne, we look at Medvedev vs Nadal for all the marbles down under.
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Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev
Why Bet On Medvedev:
✅ Nadal is undefeated this year so far, winning all nine of his completed matches. But he has faced a much easier slate of opponents than Medvedev has, even after Nadal had to beat Denis Shapovalov and an exhausted Matteo Berrettini consecutively to get to the final. And with both players having near-identical court times in this tournament, there should be no freshness advantage for Nadal.
✅ Stylistically, this is a different matchup than Nadal’s clashes with Shapovalov and Berrettini. Those two players like to end points with pure power and shot making, while Medvedev is much better at absorbing blows from opponents and slowly turning defense into offense. This will be by far the hardest test for Nadal in 2022 and he is going to fail it.
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✅ Medvedev also has the luxury of relying on a far superior weapon of a first serve if he needs free points to get out of trouble. The Russian has fired off 52 more aces this tournament than his opponent in this match, and has a slightly superior percentage of first serve points won. In a match where neither player will give an inch, that is a significant factor for when things inevitably get difficult.
Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal got through the semifinals in four sets as well, beating Matteo Berrettini to reach the final. After cruising through the first two sets, Nadal gave a set back to the Italian in the third. After failing to win one of the first 23 return points he played against Berrettini in the fourth set, Nadal struck and turned Berrettini’s final game on serve around to earn the final break.
Nadal has only faced a couple of tests in this tournament, and has yet to play an elite level player yet in 2022. A match against Medvedev will bring much more of a physical demand than the previous matches Nadal has won this year. And while Nadal can meet those demands when at his best, we still don’t know for sure if he is capable of sustaining that kind of level for five sets on a hard court against someone like Medvedev in 2022.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas for the second year in a row in the semifinal round of the Australian Open, advancing to the final where he hopes to win a second straight major. Medvedev won the first set in a tiebreak before being broken twice and losing the second set. He then took full control over Tsitsipas in the final two sets, winning the third before taking the fourth via double break.
Medvedev faced just four break points against Tsitsipas, with his second serve points being a big reason why. The Russian won over 70% of his second serve points in the semifinal, as he was so precise in baseline rallies throughout the match. Against Nadal, he will need to bring similar precision and avoid lapses like he suffered in the second set against Tsitsipas.