Three of the four games on Thursday night in the NHL look like they have some serious potential. The latest of those games is Game 3 between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Minnesota Wild. After a 1-0 loss in Game 1, Vegas bounced back to salvage one of the two games on home ice and even up the series at 1-1 heading to the Twin Cities.
This game is virtually a toss-up in St. Paul, as BetMGM Sportsbook has -115 on the Golden Knights with a total of 5.5 juiced to the under. It is a big swing game and one where we should get maximum efforts from both teams right from the jump for the 8:30 p.m. local time puck drop.
We’ll break this one down and find either a side or total play for Game 3.
Vegas Golden Knights
It sure seemed like the first period of Game 1 was going to set the tone for the series. Vegas fired 20 shots on Cam Talbot and had all four of the period’s high-danger chances at 5-v-5. Then things turned a bit. Minnesota got back into the flow of the game with the long change and actually had the better scoring chances.
Ultimately, Minnesota won 1-0 in overtime on a sequence that featured three bad bounces for the Knights, including the one that went off of Alec Martinez and into the net behind Marc-Andre Fleury. Both goaltenders were strong in that game and both goaltenders were solid in Game 2 as well, but Fleury was just a little bit better than Talbot.
Even though Game 2 ended with a 3-1 final, the teams combined for 54 scoring chances at full strength. The Knights, however, had just six high-danger scoring chances at 5-v-5. They’ll need to find a way to generate a lot more offense now that they are on the road, where Minnesota will have the luxury of the last line change.
Vegas wound up with way too many chances outside the slot and out by the circles, which was an adjustment that Minnesota made after the first period of Game 1. It is easier to block shots and get into shooting lanes from those angles. The onus will be on Vegas to get closer to the front of the net by any means necessary.
Through two games, Fleury has stopped 63 of 65 shots and has been quite efficient with the glove hand. The game-winner in Game 1 was hardly his fault on a blocked shot attempt and there wasn’t much he could do about the other goal either. He’s giving the Golden Knights a lot of confidence right now.
Minnesota Wild
The bonus would have been leaving Vegas with Game 2 in hand as well, but as we all know, you take what you can get in Sin City and hope not to go home broke. Minnesota was playing with house money to a degree in Game 1 after swiping home ice advantage. Now it is a best-of-five and Minnesota is home for three of those games.
You really have to like the way that the Wild have played since the first period of Game 1. They had some trouble getting their legs going, but once they got on track, they actually outchanced the Golden Knights in that game and also had the better-quality looks in Game 2. Unfortunately, the Wild only have two goals to show for it.
It was Minnesota that had the upper hand in the first period of Game 2, but Fleury was equal to the task and Minnesota’s second-period lead only lasted 18 seconds. It had to be demoralizing for it to come and go as fast as it did and Minnesota failed to muster much of a counterpunch in the third period after giving up a goal with 2:41 left in the second.
It has been an even series and one very much deserving of the 1-1 split. We’ll see what Minnesota has in store for Game 2, but whatever it is, Cam Talbot will have to stand tall. Talbot has stopped 67 of 70 shots and his first period performance in Game 1 was the reason why Minnesota had the opportunity to steal a game at T-Mobile Arena.
He had a strong regular season with a 2.63 GAA and a .915 SV%, which included a 12-2-2 record at home in 17 games played.
Golden Knights vs. Wild Free Pick
An even series between two pretty evenly-matched teams brings us to an all-important Game 3. This one is a toss-up and the line suggests as much as well. I’ll give the nod to Vegas here for one simple reason – Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury seems more trustworthy than Cam Talbot. If the Knights can make adjustments to get more front-facing shots instead of shots outside the dots, it will be tougher for Talbot to hold up. I would expect that adjustment to be made.
NHL Free Picks: Vegas Golden Knights