Sam Darnold projections and prop bets for Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov 10, 2024
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Carries
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
- Carries 3.5 over: -150
- Carries 3.5 under: 120
Trends Favoring The Over Carries Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Sam Darnold has been a much bigger part of his offense's ground game this season (10.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).
Trends Favoring The Under Carries Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-least run-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 37.1% run rate.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
The Jaguars defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection For Sam Darnold Carries Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 3.4 Carries in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Passing Yards
Passing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Passing Yards 247.5 over: -110
- Passing Yards 247.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Passing Yards Prop Bet
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Sam Darnold has thrown for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (239.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
Sam Darnold ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 86th percentile.
Sam Darnold's passing effectiveness has gotten better this season, totaling 8.59 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.18 figure last season.
Trends Favoring The Under Passing Yards Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Projection For Sam Darnold Passing Yards Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 251.3 Passing Yards in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Interceptions
Interceptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Interceptions 0.5 over: -124
- Interceptions 0.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Interceptions Prop Bet
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Jacksonville's defense profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year as it relates to forcing interceptions, accumulating just 0.19 per game.
The Jaguars safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
Trends Favoring The Under Interceptions Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Projection For Sam Darnold Interceptions Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 0.4 Interceptions in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Pass Attempts
Pass Attempts Prop Bet Odds:
- Pass Attempts 30.5 over: -120
- Pass Attempts 30.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Pass Attempts Prop Bet
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Trends Favoring The Under Pass Attempts Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Projection For Sam Darnold Pass Attempts Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 30.5 Pass Attempts in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Completions
Completions Prop Bet Odds:
- Completions 20.5 over: -114
- Completions 20.5 under: -114
Trends Favoring The Over Completions Prop Bet
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Sam Darnold ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 86th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football against the Jaguars defense this year (75.7% Adjusted Completion%).
The Jaguars safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
Trends Favoring The Under Completions Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Projection For Sam Darnold Completions Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 21.1 Completions in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Rushing Yards
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Rushing Yards 14.5 over: -110
- Rushing Yards 14.5 under: -110
Trends Favoring The Over Rushing Yards Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Sam Darnold has been a much bigger part of his offense's ground game this season (10.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).
Sam Darnold has rushed for a lot more yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (3.0).
Trends Favoring The Under Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-least run-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 37.1% run rate.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
With a terrible rate of 0.86 yards-after-contact (21st percentile), Sam Darnold places as one of the bottom rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.
The Jaguars defensive ends project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection For Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 15.5 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Sam Darnold Player Prop Bet: Touchdown Passes
Touchdown Passes Prop Bet Odds:
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 over: -159
- Touchdown Passes 1.5 under: 123
Trends Favoring The Over Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
The model projects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Sam Darnold ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league this year with a remarkable 70.0% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 86th percentile.
Sam Darnold has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging an excellent 2.12 per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football against the Jaguars defense this year (75.7% Adjusted Completion%).
Trends Favoring The Under Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
A rushing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
Projection For Sam Darnold Touchdown Passes Prop Bet
Sam Darnold is projected to have 1.7 Touchdown Passes in this weeks game.
