It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Denver Nuggets (32-15) welcome the Utah Jazz (32-15) to the Pepsi Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 30, 2020.
Denver opened as a 1.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215.5 points at PointsBet SportsBook.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
The last time the Jazz played, they were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs, 127-120, but they were able to cover as 14.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (247) came in well over the projected point total of 220.5. San Antonio’s 8.6 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Utah, who had a mark of 11.1. The Spurs’ mark was better than their season average of 11.2. Utah’s Rudy Gobert had a good outing, finishing with 17 points and 19 rebounds.
The Nuggets lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in their last contest, 104-96. They failed to cover as 1-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (200) came in well under the O/U total of 224. Memphis couldn’t miss, shooting 56.1 percent from the field. Denver, meanwhile, had a field goal percentage of 37.2. With 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Nikola Jokic was the game’s high scorer.
After the Jazz won three out of four meetings against the Nuggets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent contest, Utah won 118-108. The Jazz had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (24.3 vs. 7.1) and had a much better free throw rate (0.333 vs. 0.159).
Utah heads into the contest with records of 32-15 straight up (SU) and 24-20-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Jazz have finished over the projected point total 52.2 percent of the time.
Denver is 32-15 SU, but they have a hard time covering the spread (19-22-6 ATS). Of the Nuggets’ 47 games, 28 have finished under the total.
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Denver currently ranks 27th in possessions per game (100.5) and Utah is 25th (100.7). Moreover, the fourth-ranked defense of the Jazz (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 0.506) will go head-to-head against the 21st-ranked offense of the Nuggets (effective field goal percentage of 0.518).
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
Betting Trends
Utah is 12-11-1 ATS on the road with 12 overs and 12 unders.
At home, Denver is 9-12-3 ATS with 15 unders and 9 overs.
Denver is 11-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Utah is 12-1.
The Nuggets are 30-10 when they score more than 100 points, while the Jazz are 31-10.
Denver ranks ninth in steals per game (8.2) while Utah ranks 29th (6.0).
The Nuggets rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Jazz rank 26th (12.0).
Denver ranks fifth in assists per game (26.2) while Utah ranks 25th (22.2).
The Nuggets rank 12th in points off turnovers per game (17.1) while the Jazz rank 27th (14.5).
Utah ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (33.6) while Denver ranks 25th (30.3).
The Nuggets rank 20th in blocks per game (4.5) while the Jazz rank 27th (4.0).
Utah ranks 15th in points in the paint per game (48.0) while Denver ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (49.5).
The Jazz rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (42.8) while the Nuggets rank seventh (43.6).
Denver ranks 24th in fast break points per game (11.6) while Utah ranks 26th (10.6).
In its last five games, Utah is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 4.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 107.6 points per game (1.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (2.2 above their season average).
