The Orlando Magic (16-19) take on the Utah Jazz (22-12) at the Amway Center. The game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4, 2020.
Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic ATS Prediction
The last time the Jazz played, they covered the 3.5-point spread against the Chicago Bulls, 102-98. The total points for the game (200) were under the projected point total of 209. Utah’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Chicago. The Jazz had a rate of 0.224 (above their season average of 0.217), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.138 (below their season average of 0.184). Rudy Gobert played well for Utah, recording 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The Magic easily got past the Miami Heat in their last matchup, 105-85, despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (190) were well under the projected point total of 217.5. The Magic forced 18 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.321 (above their season average of 0.190). With 20 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists, Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic put together a good outing.
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Orlando currently ranks 28th in possessions per game (99.9) and Utah is 25th (100.8). Moreover, the third-ranked defense of the Jazz (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 0.498) will battle against the 29th-ranked offense of the Magic (effective field goal percentage of 0.490).
Utah has a solid 22-12 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (15-17-2 against the spread (ATS)). Games involving the Jazz have a slight tendency to finish under the O/U total (52.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Orlando is 16-19 SU and 14-16-4 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when setting the total of Magic games, with an even split between overs and unders.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Bojan Bogdanovic put up 30 points, five rebounds and five assists in the first game, in which the Jazz defeated the Magic 109-102, resulting in a push. The game finished with a total of 211 points, which was just 4.5 points above the projected point total of 206.5 points. Utah had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (21.3 vs. 7.7). Orlando, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (2.9 vs. 12.6).
Jazz at Magic ATS Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
On the road, Utah is 8-9-1 ATS with 11 unders and 7 overs.
Orlando is 6-9-2 ATS at home with 10 unders and 7 overs.
In contests where they allow less than 100 points, Orlando is 9-3 and Utah is 8-1.
When scoring above 100 points, the Magic are 12-9 and the Jazz are 21-7.
Orlando ranks third in steals per game (8.6) while Utah ranks 28th (6.0).
The Magic rank third in blocks per game (6.5) while the Jazz rank 25th (4.1).
Orlando ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while Utah ranks 21st (17.9).
The Magic rank 19th in fast break points per game (12.4) while the Jazz rank 27th (10.5).
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.4) while Orlando ranks ninth (23.3).
The Jazz rank 15th in rebounds per game (45.5) while the Magic rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.4).
Utah ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (31.6) while Orlando ranks 11th (33.1).
The Jazz rank 21st in points in the paint per game (46.2) while the Magic rank 26th (44.1).
Orlando is 25th in the league with 12.1 second chance points per game while Utah is 29th with 10.6 second chance points per game.
In its last five contests, Utah is 5-0 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Orlando is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 99.0 points per game (5.1 below their season average).