The New Orleans Pelicans (1-6) challenge the Toronto Raptors (5-2) at the Smoothie King Center. The game can be seen on The Sports Network at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 8, 2019.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 234 points with Toronto opening as a 2.5-point favorite.
Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans Free Prediction
Although the Raptors defeated the Sacramento Kings in their last matchup, 124-120, they failed to cover as 8-point favorites. The total points for the game (244) were well over the projected point total of 219. Toronto made good use of their 29 trips to the charity stripe, making 24 of them (82.8 percent). Sacramento, on the other hand, was 16-21 (76.2 percent). Pascal Siakam was a key piece for Toronto with 23 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.
In the Pelicans’ previous matchup, they fell to the Brooklyn Nets, 135-125. They failed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (260) were well over the projected point total of 239.5. Getting to the free throw line was one of Brooklyn’s biggest advantages. They had 28 free throw attempts, while New Orleans had 21. With 40 points on 17-for-24 shooting, Brandon Ingram was the game’s leading scorer.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Siakam put up 34 points, 18 rebounds and five assists in the first matchup, in which the Raptors beat the Pelicans 130-122, covering as 6.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 252 points, which was 21 points above the projected point total of 231 points. The Raptors made 32 of their 38 free throws (84.2 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (11.8 vs. 14.6).
Toronto comes into the game with records of 5-2 straight up (SU) and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Raptors are involved, as 57.1 percent of their games have gone over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Similarly to Toronto, Pelicans games also tend to finish over the projected point total (85.7 percent).
This contest should be a battle of conflicting styles. New Orleans ranks second in possessions per game (106.3) while Toronto is 17th (101.8) since the 2018-19 season. Moreover, the Raptors rank fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.538), whereas the bottom-tier defense of the Pelicans ranks 21st with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.533.
Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans Odds Pick
Prediction: Raptors/New Orleans O/U – Over
New Orleans is 5-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Toronto is 27-2.
The Pelicans are 34-47 when they reach 100 points, while the Raptors are 74-26.
Toronto ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (45.2) while New Orleans ranks 28th (52.1).
The Pelicans rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Raptors rank 27th (12.0).
Toronto averages 18.0 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. New Orleans ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (16.0).
The Raptors rank seventh in three pointers attempted per game (34.0) while the Pelicans rank 26th in three pointers allowed per game (34.0).
Toronto averages 8.2 steals per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 28th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
The Raptors rank ninth in points off turnovers per game (17.2) while the Pelicans rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.4).
New Orleans ranks fifth in rebounds per game (47.1) while Toronto ranks 21st (44.7).
The Raptors average 24.8 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. The Pelicans rank last in assists allowed per game (26.5).
Toronto ranks 12th in blocks per game (5.2) while New Orleans ranks 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.4).