Offense meets defense when the Miami Heat (24-9) welcome the Toronto Raptors (23-11) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 2, 2020, and will air on NBATV.
Miami opened as a 6-point favorite at PointsBet, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 215 points.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the Raptors’ last outing, they easily covered the 8-point spread against the Cleveland Cavaliers, 117-97. The game’s total points (214) finished under the O/U total of 218. The Raptors knocked down 20 of their 25 free throws (80.0 percent) and held the Cavaliers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 (below their season average of 23.8). Toronto received a boost from Serge Ibaka, who had 20 points and 10 rebounds.
The Heat lost big to the Washington Wizards in their last outing, 123-105, despite being 14-point favorites. The total points for the game (228) came in over the projected point total of 223. Washington’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Miami. The Wizards posted a mark of 8.5 (stronger than their season average of 11.4), while the Heat had a rate of 16.6 (above the 13.3 mark opponents have averaged against Washington this season). With 27 points on 6-for-10 shooting, Jimmy Butler led Miami in scoring.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Butler recorded 22 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists in the first matchup, in which the Heat beat the Raptors 121-110, covering as 5.5-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 231 points, which was 19 points above the projected point total of 212 points. The Heat had a better offensive rebounding percentage (20.4 vs. 16.7) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.530 vs. 0.445).
Toronto holds records of 23-11 straight up (SU) and 19-15 against the spread (ATS). It’s tough to find a trend for games involving the Raptors in regards to the O/U total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 24-9 SU and 18-13-2 ATS. Heat games have a tendency to go over the total (60.6 percent).
The game should be a matchup of strength against strength as the prolific offense of Miami (fifth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 110.0) takes on the top-notch defense of Toronto (second in the league with a defensive efficiency of 102.1). Furthermore, the Raptors, who rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage (21.8 percent), will clash against the Heat, who rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
Toronto is 8-7 ATS on the road with 10 unders and 5 overs.
Miami is 10-5-1 ATS at home with 11 overs and 5 unders.
Miami is 4-1 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Toronto is 11-2.
The Heat are 24-5 when they score over 100 points, while the Raptors are 21-8.
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Toronto ranks 26th (47.4).
The Raptors average 19.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Heat rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.1).
Toronto ranks second in fast break points per game (18.2) while Miami ranks 24th (11.2).
The Raptors average 35.7 three pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.2).
Toronto ranks third in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Miami ranks 22nd (8.2).
The Raptors rank ninth in blocks per game (5.4) while the Heat rank 25th (4.2).
Miami ranks 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.8) while Toronto ranks 26th (14.5).
The Heat average 25.1 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Raptors rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.0).
Toronto ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.6) while Miami ranks eighth (45.2).
Over its last five outings, Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Raptors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, down from 5.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 114.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.8 points per game (5.6 above their season average).