It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the New Orleans Pelicans (17-27) welcome the San Antonio Spurs (19-23) to the Smoothie King Center. The game will air on ESPN at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 22, 2020.
New Orleans opened as a 4-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 236 points at PointsBet Sportsbook.
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans Free Prediction
The Spurs come in on a high note after edging the Phoenix Suns in their last matchup, 120-118, as 5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (238) were over the projected point total of 230. San Antonio’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Phoenix. The Spurs had a rate of 7.6 (better than their season average of 11.2), while the Suns posted a mark of 13.1. San Antonio received a boost from Derrick White, who was the team’s leading scorer with 25 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
In the Pelicans’ last outing, they beat the Memphis Grizzlies, 126-116, despite being 3-point underdogs. The total points for the game (242) came in under the projected point total of 250.5. One of New Orleans’ largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 21-24 (87.5 percent), while the Grizzlies were 15-21 (71.4 percent). Jrue Holiday was the game’s high scorer with 36 points on 12-for-18 shooting from the field.
After the Spurs won three out of four games against the Pelicans last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent game, San Antonio won 113-108. The Spurs had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (21.3 vs. 11.1) and had a better free throw rate (0.174 vs. 0.125).
San Antonio heads into the game with records of 19-23 straight up (SU) and 16-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Spurs have a tendency to go over the total (59.5 percent).
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 17-27 SU and 21-20-3 ATS. Much like San Antonio, games featuring the Pelicans also have typically finished over the total (56.8 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. DeMar DeRozan (27 points,8.0 rebounds,7.6 assists,1.6 steals) has been stellar for the Spurs while Lonzo Ball (13 points,10.8 assists,9.0 rebounds,1.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Pelicans.
New Orleans should have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Pelicans rank ninth in effective field goal percentage (0.531), while San Antonio ranks 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.533). Also, the Spurs rank third in turnover percentage (12.2 percent), while the Pelicans rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.1 percent).
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over
On the road, San Antonio is 9-9-2 ATS with 12 overs, 7 unders and 1 push.
New Orleans is 11-10 ATS at home with 12 overs and 9 unders.
New Orleans is 3-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while San Antonio is 1-0.
When reaching 100 points, the Pelicans are 17-24 and the Spurs are 19-19.
New Orleans ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (38.6) while San Antonio ranks 29th (28.2).
The Spurs rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Pelicans rank 27th (18.9).
New Orleans ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.5) while San Antonio ranks 28th (11.5).
The Pelicans average 25.5 assists per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Spurs rank 26th in assists allowed per game (25.4).
San Antonio accounts for 14.5 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (15.3).
The Spurs rank 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4) while the Pelicans rank 28th (52.9).
San Antonio ranks seventh in rebounds per game (46.1) while New Orleans ranks 17th in rebounds allowed per game (46.0).
Over its last five games, San Antonio is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Spurs have outscored opponents by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, San Antonio has been defeated by an average of 1.0 point.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 123.2 points per game (8.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 126.2 points per game (8.6 above their season average).