The San Antonio Spurs head to Target Center in Minneapolis this weekend for a back-to-back set against the Minnesota Timberwolves, so I bring you the best betting pick for the opening contest Saturday night along with the latest odds update on BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Spurs have won 16 of their previous 20 encounters with the T-Wolves, but they’ve dropped the previous two while failing to cover.
San Antonio continues a five-game road trip
The San Antonio Spurs (4-4; 6-2 ATS) are on the road, coming off a couple of tremendous victories in Los Angeles earlier this week. They upset the Clippers 116-113 as 7.5-point dogs and the Lakers 118-109 as 8.5-point dogs, snapping a four-game losing streak.
The Spurs took good care of the ball, committing just 19 turnovers in total through those two games at Staples Center. They shot 50.0% from beyond the arc against the Clippers while making 45.7% of their 3-pointers against the Lakers.
San Antonio is now 15th in the league in both points scored per 100 possessions (109.9) and field goal percentage (45.4), but the Spurs shoot 40.5% from downtown (3rd in the NBA). They surrender 111.8 points per 100 possessions (19th) on 48.1% shooting from the field (25th) and 40.5% from beyond the 3-point line (30th).
Minnesota looks helpless without Karl-Anthony Towns
The Minnesota Timberwolves (2-6; 3-5 ATS) are on a six-game losing streak following a 135-117 defeat at the Portland Trail Blazers this past Thursday. They had a 21-point deficit at halftime after allowing a whopping 47 points in the second quarter.
It was another horrible defensive performance by the T-Wolves who are dead last in the league in points allowed per 100 possessions (118.5). Minnesota is 29th in opponent field goal percentage (50.6%) and 27th in assists allowed per 100 possessions (27.2).
On the other side of the ball, the Timberwolves tally 105.7 points per 100 possessions (24th) on 44.0% shooting from the field (25th) and 31.9% from downtown (29th). Karl-Anthony Towns missed the previous six games due to a wrist injury and is questionable to play Saturday, so D’Angelo Russell (20.0 PPG, 5.1 APG) and Malik Beasley (17.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG) lead the way for Minnesota.
[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”nba/spurs” size=”300×250″ site_id=”atsio” css=”float:right; margin-left:10px”]Trends:
San Antonio:
- 7-3 ATS in the last ten road games against Minnesota
- 7-1 ATS in the last eight games away from home
Minnesota:
- 1-5 ATS in the last six games overall
- 3-15 ATS in the last 18 home contests
The Winner Prediction
The Spurs look like a mediocre team ready to fight, though their defense is a big problem. However, the Timberwolves have even bigger problems on both sides of the ball while playing some lousy defense, so I’m going with the Spurs to cover a 4.5-point spread.
I don’t feel comfortable with seven points. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league at the moment, but the T-Wolves could keep it close against the Spurs if they find a way to exploit San Antonio’s defensive flaws.
Even if Towns returns Saturday, he’ll probably get some restricted minutes. Anyway, the Spurs have to continue to share the ball and find open shots which shouldn’t be a problem against Minnesota regardless of KAT’s status.
Pick: Take San Antonio -4.5 at -170
The Total:
Although they are such a bad team, the Timberwolves love to play at a fast pace, and the Spurs won’t mind joining the party. Both teams average above 102.0 possessions per 48 minutes, and if they continue to play bad defense, we’ll see a proper high-scoring affair.
The Spurs’ last three games went in the over, as well as the Timberwolves’ previous four contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between San Antonio and Minnesota.
Pick: Go over 231.5 points at -110