It will be a battle between Southwest Division opponents when the Dallas Mavericks (19-10) welcome the San Antonio Spurs (12-17) to the American Airlines Center. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Southwest at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 26, 2019.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction
In the Spurs’ last contest, they comfortably covered the 1-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies, 145-115. The total points for the game (260) were well over the O/U total of 229. The Spurs had a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.758 (above their season average of 0.514), while the Grizzlies had a free throw rate of 0.104 (below their season average of 0.172). San Antonio was led by LaMarcus Aldridge, who was the game’s leading scorer with 40 points on 17-for-25 shooting.
The Mavericks lost a close one to the Toronto Raptors in their last game, 110-107, but were able to cover as 3.5-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (217) came in over the O/U total of 210.5. Toronto’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Dallas. The Raptors posted a mark of 8.5 (stronger than their season average of 12.7), while the Mavericks had a rate of 14.3 (above their season average of 10.8). With 19 points and 12 rebounds, Kristaps Porzingis had a solid performance for Dallas.
This is the second game of the season between these two squads. In the first, Luka Doncic notched a triple-double. He put up 42 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds and the Mavericks beat the Spurs 117-110, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was just 2.5 points above the projected point total of 224.5 points. Dallas’ free throw rate was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.190, while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.146.
San Antonio holds records of 12-17 straight up (SU) and 8-19-2 against the spread (ATS). Spurs games have typically finished over the projected point total (58.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 19-10 SU and 18-11 ATS. Much like San Antonio, Mavericks games also have a tendency to go over the O/U total (65.5 percent).
Both teams have had a couple of players trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Spurs it’s been Aldridge (17 points,8.6 rebounds,2.2 blocks) and Dejounte Murray (13 points,5.8 rebounds,4.6 assists,2.4 steals), while Porzingis (23 points,13.0 rebounds,2.6 blocks) and Jalen Brunson (12 points,8.2 assists) have been stellar for the Mavericks.
Dallas could put on a ball-control clinic in this matchup. Dallas ranks first in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.0 percent), while San Antonio forces the third-fewest turnovers (12.3 percent).
San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, San Antonio is 4-7-2 ATS with 8 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 6-9 ATS with 9 overs and 6 unders.
When allowing below 100 points, Dallas is 4-0 and San Antonio is 1-0.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Spurs are 12-14 and the Mavericks are 19-9.
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (40.8) while San Antonio ranks last (26.4).
The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.9) while the Spurs rank 27th (11.6).
San Antonio averages 14.6 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (15.9).
The Mavericks average 48.1 rebounds per game, which ranks third in the league. The Spurs rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.1).
Dallas ranks seventh in assists allowed per game (22.9) while San Antonio ranks 25th (25.4).
The Mavericks rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.6) while the Spurs rank sixth (4.5).
San Antonio ranks 25th in steals per game (6.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.4).
The Spurs rank 24th in points off turnovers per game (15.8) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.4).
Dallas ranks 24th in points in the paint per game (45.1) while San Antonio ranks 25th (45.0).
In its last five contests, San Antonio is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Spurs have outscored opponents by an average of 3.6 points in their last five games. On the season, San Antonio has been defeated by an average of 2.7 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 113.0 points per game (4.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.0 points per game (2.1 above their season average).
