The San Antonio Spurs (22-30) will try to end their five-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Denver Nuggets (37-16) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 10, 2020.
Denver is a 6-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points at NJ Draftkings Sportsbook.
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
The Spurs were not able to cover as 2-point favorites in their 122-102 loss to the Sacramento Kings in their last contest. The game’s combined points (224) were just over the projected point total of 222. Sacramento’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Kings had a rate of 9.5 (better than their season average of 12.9), while the Spurs posted a mark of 13.6. Dejounte Murray led San Antonio in scoring with 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting.
In the Nuggets’ previous matchup, they beat the Phoenix Suns, 117-108, covering as 3.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (225) came in over the projected point total of 218. Denver had an effective field goal percentage of 0.616 (above their season average of 0.521). Phoenix, meanwhile, did an excellent job of making free throws (23-23; 100.0 percent). Jamal Murray was the top scorer from either team with 36 points on 14-for-17 shooting from the field.
After the Nuggets won six out of 11 matchups against the Spurs last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Denver won 90-86. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.0 vs. 16.7) and had a better turnover percentage (5.8 vs. 6.0).
San Antonio heads into the contest with records of 22-30 straight up (SU) and 21-29-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Spurs are playing, as 59.6 percent of their contests have ended over the total.
Meanwhile, Denver is 37-16 SU and 24-23-6 ATS. Contrary to San Antonio, games including the Nuggets have typically gone under the projected point total (56.6 percent).
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.2 percent), while San Antonio ranks fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.0 percent).
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
On the road, San Antonio is 12-12-2 ATS with 17 overs, 8 unders and 1 push.
Denver is 11-12-3 ATS at home with 16 unders and 10 overs.
Denver is 13-1 when they allow under 100 points, while San Antonio is 2-0.
The Spurs are 22-25 when they score more than 100 points, while the Nuggets are 34-11.
Denver ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.5) while San Antonio ranks 28th (11.2).
The Nuggets rank ninth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while the Spurs rank 29th (43.7).
Denver averages 26.2 assists per game, which ranks fifth in the league. San Antonio ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (25.7).
The Nuggets rank 10th in steals per game (8.1) while the Spurs rank 25th (6.8).
Denver ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.7) while San Antonio ranks 27th (14.7).
The Spurs rank ninth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Nuggets rank 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. Denver is 26th in the league with 30.6 three pointers per game while San Antonio is 29th with 28.3 threes per game.
In its last five outings, San Antonio is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Spurs’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.8, up from 1.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 118.4 points per game (8.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (2.8 above their season average).