The Miami Heat (25-10) welcome the Portland Trail Blazers (15-21) to AmericanAirlines Arena as they look to prolong their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 5, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami is a 5.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Trail Blazers’ last matchup, they comfortably covered the 7.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards, 122-103. The combined points for the game (225) were under the projected point total of 232.5. The Trail Blazers knocked down 26 of their 33 free throws (78.8 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 11.5). Hassan Whiteside played a pivotal role for Portland with 23 points, 21 rebounds and five blocks.
The Heat were blown out by the Orlando Magic in their last game, 105-85. They were not able to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (190) came in well under the projected point total of 206. Orlando’s 9.6 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Miami, who had a rate of 16.6. The Magic’s mark was better than their season average of 11.1, while the Heat’s was above the 13.4 mark opponents have averaged against Orlando this season. Miami’s Jimmy Butler had a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 23 points on 7-for-12 shooting.
After the Heat won both games against the Trail Blazers last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Miami won 118-108. The Heat made 21 of their 25 free throws (84.0 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.5 vs. 15.6).
Portland heads into the contest with records of 15-21 straight up (SU) and 14-20-2 against the spread (ATS). There does not appear to be a trend for games including the Trail Blazers in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Miami is 25-10 SU and 19-14-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 35 games, 20 have finished over the total.
The aggressive Miami offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this battle. The Heat currently rank first in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.241, while Portland ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.218). Additionally, the Trail Blazers rank 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage (22.1 percent), while the Heat rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat Free Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
On the road, Portland is 8-10-1 ATS with 11 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 11-5-1 ATS at home with 11 overs and 6 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Miami is 5-1 and Portland is 3-0.
When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 24-5 and the Trail Blazers are 15-15.
Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while Portland ranks 29th (47.7).
The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Heat rank 27th (19.2).
Portland ranks third in blocks per game (6.5) while Miami ranks 25th (4.1).
The Heat rank 11th in assists per game (24.8) while the Trail Blazers rank last (19.6).
Miami ranks 10th in second chance points allowed per game (12.7) while Portland ranks 28th (15.9).
The Heat rank 12th in steals per game (7.8) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (5.9).
Portland ranks 15th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.3).
The Trail Blazers rank 17th in fast break points per game (12.7) while the Heat rank 25th (10.9).
Miami ranks 21st in points in the paint per game (45.3) while Portland ranks 28th (43.5).
In its last five outings, Portland is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.0, up from 1.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 100.8 points per game (10.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average).