The Dallas Mavericks (26-15) take on the Portland Trail Blazers (18-24) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 17, 2020, and will air on ESPN.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
The Trail Blazers come in on a high note after topping the Houston Rockets in their last game, 117-107, as 8.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (224) finished under the projected point total of 237.5. The Trail Blazers had a phenomenally low turnover percentage of 6.1 (better than their season average of 11.3) and had a free throw rate of 0.253 (above their season average of 0.193). Portland was lifted by Hassan Whiteside, who contributed 18 points and 18 rebounds.
The last time the Mavericks were in action, they were victorious over the Sacramento Kings, 127-123, covering as 3.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (250) were well over the O/U total of 226. One of Dallas’ largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-24 (83.3 percent), while the Kings were just 11-20 (55.0 percent). With 25 points, 17 assists and 15 rebounds, Luka Doncic led the way for Dallas with his 11th triple-double this season.
Dallas should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Dallas ranks first in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.1 percent), while Portland forces the second-fewest turnovers (11.9 percent).
Portland holds records of 18-24 straight up (SU) and 16-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Trail Blazers’ games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 26-15 SU and 24-17 ATS. Of the Mavericks’ 41 games, 25 have finished over the projected point total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. CJ McCollum scored a game-high 35 points in the first game, in which the Trail Blazers, who were 3-point underdogs, beat the Mavericks 121-119. He also recorded six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 240 points, which was 21.5 points above the projected point total of 218.5 points. Portland had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.569 vs. 0.463). Dallas, meanwhile, had a much better turnover percentage (8.9 vs. 14.0).
Trail Blazers at Mavericks Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
On the road, Portland is 10-12-1 ATS with 14 unders, 8 overs and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 9-13 ATS with 13 overs and 9 unders.
Dallas is 7-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Portland is 4-0.
The Mavericks are 26-13 when they score over 100 points, while the Trail Blazers are 18-18.
Dallas ranks second in second chance points per game (15.0) while Portland ranks last in second chance points allowed per game (15.7).
The Mavericks average 47.7 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Trail Blazers rank 28th in rebounds allowed per game (48.3).
Dallas averages 40.8 three pointers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Portland ranks 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (34.8).
The Trail Blazers rank second in blocks per game (6.4) while the Mavericks rank 19th (4.6).
Portland ranks 14th in fast break points per game (12.9) while Dallas ranks last in fast break points allowed per game (16.4).
The Mavericks rank 15th in assists per game (24.3) while the Trail Blazers rank last (19.7).
Dallas ranks 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.6) while Portland ranks 29th (43.0).
The Trail Blazers rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.3) while the Mavericks rank sixth (15.0).
Dallas ranks 27th in steals per game (6.3) while Portland ranks 29th (5.9).
Over its last five outings, Portland is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 2.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 116.0 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.4 points per game (0.1 above their season average).