It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Denver Nuggets (34-16) welcome the Portland Trail Blazers (23-27) to the Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 4, 2020, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220.5 points at PointsBet NJ Sportsbook.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
In the Trail Blazers’ last contest, they topped the Utah Jazz, 124-107, as 8-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (231) came in just over the projected point total of 230. The Trail Blazers made 15 of their 18 free throws (83.3 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 35.0 (above their season average of 21.9). Portland was led by Damian Lillard, who was the game’s high scorer with 51 points on 17-for-29 shooting.
The Nuggets lost to the Detroit Pistons in their last outing, 128-123, despite being 2-point favorites. The combined points for the game (251) came in well over the projected point total of 211.5. Detroit’s 0.191 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Denver, who had a rate of 0.177. The Pistons’ mark was below their season average of 0.205. Denver’s Nikola Jokic had an outstanding performance, collecting 39 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds on his way to his ninth triple-double this season.
The Nuggets have won both matchups against the Trail Blazers this season, including a 15-point victory in their last matchup. Denver covered as an 8-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 213 points, which was just 3.5 points below the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (34.9 vs. 17.5) and had a better free throw rate (0.136 vs. 0.093). Hassan Whiteside had a double-double in the loss with 33 points and 11 rebounds.
Portland heads into the game with records of 23-27 straight up (SU) and 20-28-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Trail Blazers’ 50 games, 26 have finished over the projected point total.
Denver has a solid 34-16 SU record, but they are just 21-23-6 ATS. Vegas tends to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 29 of their 50 games have gone under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Lillard (48 points,9.8 assists,8.2 rebounds,1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Trail Blazers while Jokic (24 points,10.2 rebounds,8.4 assists,2.0 steals) has made solid contributions to the Nuggets.
Look for Denver to own the offensive glass in this contest. The Nuggets rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (25.2 percent), while Portland ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.1 percent).
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Betting Trends
On the road, Portland is 11-14-1 ATS with 14 unders, 11 overs and 1 push.
Denver is 10-12-3 ATS at home with 16 unders and 9 overs.
Portland is 4-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Denver is 11-1.
The Nuggets are 32-11 when they reach the century mark, while the Trail Blazers are 23-21.
Denver ranks third in assists per game (26.3) while Portland ranks last (20.0).
The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (12.1) while the Trail Blazers rank last (15.7).
Denver ranks sixth in rebounds allowed per game (43.4) while Portland ranks 29th (47.8).
The Nuggets rank ninth in steals per game (8.1) while the Trail Blazers rank 29th (5.8).
Denver ranks eighth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Portland ranks 27th (44.2).
The Trail Blazers rank second in blocks per game (6.5) while the Nuggets rank 18th (4.7).
Denver ranks 13th in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while Portland ranks 29th (13.5).
The Nuggets rank 10th in three pointers allowed per game (32.9) while the Trail Blazers rank 25th (35.2).
In its last five contests, Portland is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Trail Blazers have outscored opponents by an average of 8.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Portland has lost by an average of 1.2 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (4.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.4 points per game (4.9 above their season average).
