The Phoenix Suns (8-7) will have their hands full against the league’s top scoring defense when they challenge the Denver Nuggets (11-3) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 24, 2019, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainment.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
In the Suns’ last matchup, they narrowly defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves, 100-98, as 3.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (198) came in well under the O/U total of 234.5. The Suns knocked down 24 of their 26 free throws (92.3 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 6.1 (better than their season average of 13.2). With 35 points on 12-for-26 shooting, Devin Booker was the top scorer from either team.
The Nuggets defeated the Boston Celtics in their last game, 96-92, but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites. The game’s combined points (188) were well under the projected point total of 207. Denver out-rebounded Boston. The Nuggets had 11 offensive rebounds and 48 total rebounds, while the Celtics had five and 40, respectively. With 18 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his second triple-double this season.
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball protection could play a key role in this contest. Denver commits the fourth-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while the disruptive defense of Phoenix forces the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.3 percent).
Phoenix heads into the contest with records of 8-7 straight up (SU) and 9-5 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Suns are involved, as 57.1 percent of their contests have gone over the O/U total.
Denver is 11-3 SU, but they are just 5-7-2 ATS. Contrary to Phoenix, games featuring the Nuggets tend to finish under the projected point total (78.6 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Kelly Oubre Jr. (18 points,6.2 rebounds,1.6 steals) has been stellar for the Suns while Paul Millsap (17 points,6.8 rebounds,1.6 steals) has made great contributions to the Nuggets.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Jokic recorded a triple-double. He had 23 points, 14 rebounds and 12 assists and the Nuggets topped the Suns 108-107 but did not cover as 12-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was just 3 points below the projected point total of 218 points. Denver had a better turnover percentage (11.5 vs. 14.5). Phoenix, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (21.3 vs. 15.4).
Suns at Nuggets Free Pick
NBA Pick: ATS Winner – Suns
Betting Trends
On the road, Phoenix is 3-1 ATS with 3 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 2-5-1 ATS at home with 7 unders and 1 over.
Phoenix is 2-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 8-0.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Suns are 8-5 and the Nuggets are 9-3.
Denver ranks 13th in blocks per game (5.2) while Phoenix ranks 27th (3.9).
The Suns rank 11th in three pointers attempted per game (35.0) while the Nuggets rank 25th (29.6).
Phoenix averages 15.0 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Denver ranks 21st in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
The Suns rank second in points off turnovers per game (20.9) while the Nuggets rank 15th (17.7).
Denver ranks 14th in second chance points per game (12.9) while Phoenix ranks 26th (10.5).
The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.5) while the Nuggets rank 13th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
Denver ranks ninth in rebounds per game (46.6) while Phoenix ranks 15th in rebounds allowed per game (45.5).
The Nuggets rank 17th in points in the paint per game (47.4) while the Suns rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (50.0).
Denver ranks 11th in steals per game (8.0) while Phoenix ranks 14th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
In its last five outings, Phoenix is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Suns have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Phoenix has defeated opponents by an average of 3.9 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 110.8 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (2.2 above their season average).
