The New Orleans Pelicans (6-15) will try to snap their six-game losing streak when they clash against the Phoenix Suns (9-11) at Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 5, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Arizona.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 232 points with New Orleans opening as a 2.5-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Betting Prediction
In the Suns’ last matchup, they were 4-point favorites and were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 128-114. The total points for the game (242) came in well over the O/U total of 222. Orlando’s 34.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Phoenix, who had a rate of 19.0. The Magic’s mark was above their season average of 22.9. Frank Kaminsky led Phoenix in scoring with 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting.
The Pelicans got blown out by the Dallas Mavericks in their last game, 118-97. They were unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (215) finished well under the projected point total of 233.5. Dallas made good use of their 27 trips to the charity stripe, making 23 of them (85.2 percent). New Orleans, meanwhile, was just 10-15 (66.7 percent). Brandon Ingram put together a good game for New Orleans, leading the team in scoring with 24 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
It could be a sloppy game for the New Orleans offense. New Orleans ranks 20th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent), while the gambling defense of Phoenix forces the second-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7 percent). Additionally, the Suns, who rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.224), will battle against the Pelicans, who rank 26th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.230).
Phoenix comes into the game with records of 9-11 straight up (SU) and 11-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total low when the Suns are involved, as 57.9 percent of their contests have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 6-15 SU and 8-12-1 ATS. Contrary to Phoenix, just over half of Pelicans games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Dario Saric (13 points,10.6 rebounds,1.2 blocks) has been fantastic for the Suns while JJ Redick (16 points) has made solid contributions to the Pelicans.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Kelly Oubre Jr. recorded 25 points and six rebounds in the first game, in which the Suns lost 124-121, unable to cover as 3.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 245 points, which was 10.5 points above the projected point total of 234.5 points. New Orleans’ 0.625 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.541.
Suns at Pelicans ATS Pick
Prediction: ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under
Phoenix ranks sixth in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while New Orleans ranks 27th (15.8).
Phoenix ranks 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3) while New Orleans ranks 28th (14.8).
The Pelicans rank 17th in blocks per game (4.9) while the Suns rank 27th (3.9).
New Orleans is 5-6 ATS at home, while Phoenix is 5-2 ATS on the road.
Over its last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Suns have been outscored by an average of 7.2 points in their last five games. On the season, Phoenix has defeated opponents by an average of 1.2 points.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 104.8 points per game (8.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 116.4 points per game (2.4 below their season average).