The Dallas Mavericks (29-17) clash with the Phoenix Suns (19-27) at the American Airlines Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – Arizona at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 230.5 points with Dallas set as a 7-point favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
In the Suns’ last contest, they were beaten by the Memphis Grizzlies, 114-109, and were unable to cover as 2-point underdogs. The total points for the game (223) came in under the projected point total of 229.5. Memphis’ effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix. The Grizzlies had a rate of 0.571 (above their season average of 0.535), while the Suns posted a mark of 0.440 (below their season average of 0.525). Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton put together a good performance, putting up 17 points and 15 rebounds.
The Mavericks beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last matchup, 107-97, despite being 3.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (204) came in well under the O/U total of 227. The Mavericks held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.0 (below their season average of 19.4) and had a turnover percentage of 6.4 (better than their season average of 10.8). Luka Doncic was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points on 10-for-24 shooting from the field.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Doncic scored a game-high 42 points and the Mavericks defeated the Suns 120-113, covering as 2.5-point favorites. He also recorded 11 assists and nine rebounds. The game finished with a total of 233 points, which was just 3.5 points above the projected point total of 229.5 points. The Mavericks made 33 of their 38 free throws (86.8 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (7.3 vs. 8.8).
Phoenix holds records of 19-27 straight up (SU) and 23-22-1 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Suns have a slight tendency to finish over the total (52.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 29-17 SU and 26-19 ATS. Mavericks games have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (60.0 percent).
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Dallas should have a significant edge. The sharp-shooting Mavericks offense ranks fifth in the league in that metric at 0.545, while the suspect Phoenix defense is ranked 25th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540).
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick
Pick: ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Phoenix is 13-8 ATS on the road with 12 unders and 9 overs.
At home, Dallas is 10-14 ATS with 14 overs and 10 unders.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Phoenix is 6-2 and Dallas is 8-0.
When scoring above 100 points, the Mavericks are 29-15 and the Suns are 18-22.
Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Phoenix ranks 27th (5.8).
The Mavericks rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Suns rank 23rd (12.2).
Phoenix ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.0) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.1).
The Suns rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (18.5) while the Mavericks rank 25th (15.2).
Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.6) while Phoenix ranks 22nd (43.8).
The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.4) while the Suns rank 18th (32.3).
Phoenix ranks 12th in steals per game (7.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.2).
The Suns rank second in assists per game (27.1) while the Mavericks rank 14th (24.1).
Phoenix ranks 14th in points in the paint per game (47.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (45.1).
In its last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (1.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.2 points per game (1.7 above their season average).